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Analysis of co-explosive processes

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Abstract

A vector autoregressive model allowing for unit roots as well as explosive characteristic roots is developed. The Granger-Johansen representation shows that this results in processes with two common features: a random walk and an explosively growing process. Co-integrating and co-explosive vectors can be found which eliminate these common factors. Likelihood ratio tests for linear restrictions on the co-explosive vectors are derived. As an empirical illustration the method is applied to data from the extreme Yugoslavian hyper-inflation of the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Bent Nielsen, 2005. "Analysis of co-explosive processes," Economics Papers 2005-W08, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0508
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    File URL: http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2005/w8/explosive.pdf
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    1. Johansen, Soren & Schaumburg, Ernst, 1998. "Likelihood analysis of seasonal cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 301-339, November.
    2. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
    3. Nielsen, Bent, 2001. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Unit Root Tests of Unstable Autoregressive Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 211-219, January.
    4. Bent Nielsen, 2004. "On the Distribution of Likelihood Ratio Test Statistics for Cointegration Rank," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Bent Nielsen, 2006. "Correlograms for non-stationary autoregressions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(4), pages 707-720.
    6. Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh & Ambuj Tewari & George Michailidis, 2017. "Finite Time Identification in Unstable Linear Systems," Papers 1710.01852, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    2. B. Nielsen, 2009. "Test for cointegration rank in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2009-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Engsted, Tom & Hviid, Simon J. & Pedersen, Thomas Q., 2016. "Explosive bubbles in house prices? Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 14-25.
    4. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, 2012. "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
    5. Nielsen, Bent, 2008. "On the Explosive Nature of Hyper-Inflation Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    6. Wang, Xiaohu & Yu, Jun, 2015. "Limit theory for an explosive autoregressive process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 176-180.
    7. Pavlidis, Efthymios & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2017. "Detecting Periods of Exuberance: A Look at the Role of Aggregation with an Application to House Prices," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 325, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    9. Søren Johansen, 2014. "Times Series: Cointegration," Discussion Papers 14-24, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2012. "Testing for rational bubbles in the housing market," Working Paper Series 13312, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    11. Roberto Esposti & Giulia Listorti, 2013. "Agricultural price transmission across space and commodities during price bubbles," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 125-139, January.
    12. Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen, 2013. "Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 369-381.
    13. Esposti, Roberto & Listorti, Giulia, 2014. "Price transmission in the Swiss wheat market: does sophisticated border protection make the difference?," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182695, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

    Asymptotic normality; Co-explosiveness; Cointegration; Explosive processes; Hyper-inflation; Likelihood ratio tests; Vector autoregression;

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