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Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets

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  • Shuping Shi

Abstract

This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and in 23 regional housing markets over three decades (1978-2012). A new method for detecting exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest rate, per-capita income, employment, and population growth) into consideration, the new method provides a better control for housing market fundamentals and thereby it is expected to significantly reduce the chance of false positive identification. Compared with the method of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015a,b), the new approach finds a dramatic reduction in the number of speculative housing markets and shorter bubble episodes in the US. It locates only one bubble episode in the early-to-mid 2000s over the whole sample period in the national housing market. At the regional level, it identifies three periods of speculation: late 1980s, early-to-mid 2000s, and the post-crisis period in 2011-2012. The early-to-mid 2000s bubble episode is the most severe one involving nine major metropolitan statistical areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuping Shi, 2016. "Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets," CAMA Working Papers 2016-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-46
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2016-07/46_2016_shi.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Xiaojin Sun & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "Housing Markets, Regulations and Monetary Policy," Working Papers e07-45, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2014. "Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behaviour," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 315-333, June.
    5. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    6. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2016. "Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 88-113, April.
    7. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1996. "Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?," NBER Chapters,in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 241-272 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    9. Karl E. Case, 1992. "The Real Estate Cycle and the Economy: Consequences of the Massachusetts Boom of 1984-87," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 171-183, April.
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    22. Shu-Ping Shi, 2013. "Specification sensitivities in the Markov-switching unit root test for bubbles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 697-713, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Sanin-Restrepo, Sebastian, 2018. "The maple bubble: A history of migration among Canadian provinces," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 57-71.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3010, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:73:y:2018:i:c:p:354-364 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marina Friedrich & Michael Pahle, 2019. "Allowance prices in the EU ETS -- fundamental price drivers and the recent upward trend," Papers 1906.10572, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:309-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Grossman, Valerie, 2018. "Explosive Dynamics in House Prices? An Exploration of Financial Market Spillovers in Housing Markets Around the World," Globalization Institute Working Papers 342, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 01 Sep 2018.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Detecting Financial Collapse and Ballooning Sovereign Risk," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2110, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:42-:d:158481 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative bubbles; Housing market; Fundamentals; Macroeconomic conditions; Regional; Explosive;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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