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Bubble Detective: City-Level Analysis of House Price Cycles

Author

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Sadhna Naik

Abstract

This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior. According to these recursive right-tailed test results, we reject the null hypothesis of no-bubble and find evidence for long and multiple periods of explosive behavior in the real estate market in all major cities during the sample period. While the size of bubbles varies across cities, especially when we use the house price-to-rent ratio, there is clearly a similar boom-bust pattern. Large house price corrections can in turn have adverse effects on economic performance and financial stability, as experienced during the global financial crisis and other episodes in history.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2023. "Bubble Detective: City-Level Analysis of House Price Cycles," IMF Working Papers 2023/033, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/033
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    Cited by:

    1. Han, Wei & Zhang, Bo & Li, Wei, 2024. "The constraining impact mechanism of financial cognitive ability on the effective demand for housing reverse mortgages in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PC).
    2. Mumtaz Ahmed & Liviu Marian Matac & Naureen Maqbool & Asma Salman & Muthanna G. Abdul Razzaq & Lara Al-Haddad & Codruta Daniela Pavel, 2024. "Bubbles Identification in an Emerging Economy and Within Stock Markets of its Trading Partners: Evidence from a GSADF Approach," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Jakub Dolezal, 2023. "Business and financial cycles of major global economies," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2023, pages 14-20, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Dirma, Mantas & Karmelavičius, Jaunius, 2025. "Micro-assessment of macroprudential borrower-based measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

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