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Analysis of house prices in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Martínez Pagés

    () (Banco de España)

  • Luis Ángel Maza

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

House prices in Spain have shown one of the biggest cumulative growth rates among the OECD countries over the past five years and, indeed, over a more extensive period. This paper focuses on analysing this development and its possible determinants. The evidence provided suggests income and nominal interest rates are pivotal explanatory factors, although equity returns may also have been influential in the final years of the sample. According to the estimated models, house prices are currently above their long-term equilibrium level by an amount not unlike other times in the past. Therefore, something of a correction –of an intensity difficult to estimate but not necessarily sharper than in past episodes– may be expected in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Martínez Pagés & Luis Ángel Maza, 2003. "Analysis of house prices in Spain," Working Papers 0307, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0307
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0307e.pdf
    File Function: First version, June 2003
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0307.pdf
    File Function: First Spanish version, June 2003
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Costello, Greg & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2011. "House prices, non-fundamental components and interstate spillovers: The Australian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 653-669, March.
    2. Christophe Blot, 2006. "Peut-on parler de bulle sur le marché immobilier au Luxembourg ?," BCL working papers 20, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    4. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2822, Sciences Po.
    5. Bajo-Buenestado, Raúl, 2016. "Evidence of asymmetric behavioral responses to changes in gasoline prices and taxes for different fuel types," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 119-130.
    6. Fontana, Alessandro & Corradin, Stefano, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    7. Béchir Bouzid, 2010. "Titrisation des emprunts hypothécaires et bulle immobilière aux États-Unis : les origines d’une débâcle," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 101-142.
    8. Hervé Péléraux & Xavier Timbeau & Eric Heyer & Sabine Le Bayon, 2005. "L'immobilier, pilier de la croissance ou épée de Damoclès : bulle immobilière, causes et conséquences macro-économiques d'un retournement du marché immobilier," Working Papers hal-00972769, HAL.
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1756 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 2007. "House prices and rents in Spain: Does the discount factor matter?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 291-308, November.
    11. Martin Lux & Petr Sunega, 2010. "Udržitelnost vývoje cen bytů v České republice
      [The Sustainability of House Price Trends in the Czech Republic]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(2), pages 225-252.
    12. Ricardo Gimeno & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal, 2006. "The interaction between house prices and loans for house purchase. The Spanish case," Working Papers 0605, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    13. Gimeno, Ricardo & Martí­nez-Carrascal, Carmen, 2010. "The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1849-1855, August.
    14. repec:eee:regeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bellod Redondo, José Francisco, 2009. "El precio de la vivienda y la inflación en España," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(302), pages 379-405, abril-jun.
    16. Garrido-Yserte, Rubén & Mañas-Alcón, Elena & Gallo-Rivera, Maria Teresa, 2012. "Housing and cost of living: Application to the Spanish regions," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 246-255.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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