IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands

  • Paul E. Carrillo

    ()

    (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University)

  • Erik Robert De Wit

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • William D. Larson

    ()

    (George Washington University)

This paper assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search-and-matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent home price appreciation. The empirical analysis employs data on all residential units offered for sale through a real estate broker in the Netherlands and a large suburb in the Washington, DC area. Individual records are used to construct a quarterly home price index, an index that measures seller's bargaining power, and (quality adjusted) home sale probabilities. Using conventional time-series models we show that current sale probabilities and bargaining power can significantly reduce home price appreciation forecast errors.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/Carrillo_IIEPWP2012-11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy in its series Working Papers with number 2012-11.

as
in new window

Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-11
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  2. Paul E. Carrillo, 2013. "To Sell or Not to Sell: Measuring the Heat of the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 310-346, 06.
  3. Robert Novy-Marx, 2009. "Hot and Cold Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-22.
  4. Abdullah Yavaş, 1992. "A Simple Search and Bargaining Model of Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(4), pages 533-548.
  5. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2006. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 459-485.
  6. Sven Rady, 1998. "Boom In, Bust Out: Young Households and the Housing Price Cycle," FMG Discussion Papers dp310, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
  9. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  10. Joshua Gallin, 2008. "The Long-Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 635-658, December.
  11. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
  12. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Yinger, John, 1981. "A Search Model of Real Estate Broker Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 591-605, September.
  14. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  15. Veronica Guerrieri & Daniel Hartley & Erik Hurst, 2012. "Within-City Variation in Urban Decline: The Case of Detroit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 120-26, May.
  16. Paul E. Carrillo, 2012. "An Empirical Stationary Equilibrium Search Model Of The Housing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(1), pages 203-234, 02.
  17. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
  18. James A. Berkovec & John L. Goodman, 1996. "Turnover as a Measure of Demand for Existing Homes," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 421-440.
  19. Elliot Anenberg, 2012. "Information frictions and housing market dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Heterogeneity in Neighborhood-Level Price Growth in the United States, 1993-2009," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 134-40, May.
  21. Carrillo, Paul E. & Pope, Jaren C., 2012. "Are homes hot or cold potatoes? The distribution of marketing time in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 189-197.
  22. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
  23. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "The Role of the List Price in Housing Markets: Theory and an Econometric Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 115-29, April-Jun.
  24. Lasse Bork & Stig V. Møller, 2012. "Housing price forecastability: A factor analysis," CREATES Research Papers 2012-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kyle Renner)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.