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Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market

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  • de Wit, Erik R.
  • Englund, Peter
  • Francke, Marc K.

Abstract

Housing markets typically exhibit a strong positive correlation between the rate of price increase and the number of houses sold. We document this correlation on high-quality Dutch data for the period 1985–2007, and estimate a VEC-model that allows us to study the mechanism giving rise to the correlation. The data identify the flows of new houses offered for sale as well as the number of houses sold. According to the estimated model, shocks to market fundamentals (the mortgage rate) have an immediate and significant impact on the rate of sale, little impact on the rate of entry of new houses for sale, and a gradual impact on the house prices. This pattern is consistent with an economy where buyers and sellers gradually learn about changes in market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:43:y:2013:i:2:p:220-241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul E. Carrillo & Erik Robert De Wit & William D. Larson, 2012. "Can Tightness in the Housing Market Help Predict Subsequent Home Price Appreciation? Evidence from the U.S. and the Netherlands," Working Papers 2012-11, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    2. Yunjong Kim & Seungwoo Choi & Mun Yong Yi, 2020. "Applying Comparable Sales Method to the Automated Estimation of Real Estate Prices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Dorinth W. van Dijk & Marc K. Francke, 2018. "Internet Search Behavior, Liquidity and Prices in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 368-403, June.
    4. MeiChi Huang, 2019. "A Nationwide or Localized Housing Crisis? Evidence from Structural Instability in US Housing Price and Volume Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1547-1563, April.
    5. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 211-234.
    6. Arslan, Yavuz & Kanık, Birol & Köksal, Bülent, 2015. "Anticipated vs. unanticipated house price movements and transaction volume," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 121-129.
    7. Bahar Öztürk & Dorinth van Dijk & Frank van Hoenselaar & Sander Burgers, 2018. "The relation between supply constraints and house price dynamics in the Netherlands," DNB Working Papers 601, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Martijn I. Dröes & Marc K. Francke, 2018. "What Causes the Positive Price-Turnover Correlation in European Housing Markets?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 618-646, November.
    9. Cipollini, Andrea & Parla, Fabio, 2020. "Housing market shocks in italy: A GVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Kwabena Mintah & Woon-Weng Wong & Peng Yew Wong, 2020. "Cross Border Real Estate Investments and Commercial Office Property Market Performance: Evidence from Australia," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 23(2), pages 837-860.
    11. Cook, Steve & Watson, Duncan, 2017. "Revisiting the returns–volume relationship: Time variation, alternative measures and the financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 228-235.
    12. Dorinth van Dijk, 2019. "Local Constant-Quality Housing Market Liquidity Indices," DNB Working Papers 637, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "A regional decomposition of US housing prices and volume: market dynamics and Portfolio diversification," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(2), pages 279-307, April.
    14. I-Chun Tsai, 2018. "The cause and outcomes of the ripple effect: housing prices and transaction volume," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 61(2), pages 351-373, September.
    15. Alex Minne & Marc Francke & David Geltner & Robert White, 2020. "Using Revisions as a Measure of Price Index Quality in Repeat-Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 514-553, May.
    16. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Inflation and Bubbles in the Japanese Condominium Market," MPRA Paper 71192, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Andrea Lamorgese & Dario Pellegrino, 2019. "Loss aversion in housing price appraisals among Italian homeowners," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1248, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    19. Li Xiangfei & Han Hongli & Sun Minghan, 2020. "Localized or Regional? Urban Housing Policy Spillover in China’s Urban Agglomerations 2010–2018," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 325-345, August.
    20. Vílchez, Diego, 2015. "Evaluando las Dinámicas de Precios en el Sector Inmobiliario: Evidencia para Perú," Working Papers 2015-013, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    21. Dragana Cvijanović & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Minne, 2022. "Preferences of Institutional Investors in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 321-359, August.
    22. Carozzi, Felipe, 2020. "Credit constraints and the composition of housing sales. Farewell to first-time buyers?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 91193, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Mi Diao & Yi Fan & Tien Foo Sing, 2019. "Demand Restrictions and Asymmetric Risk Behaviors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 131-167.
    24. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2019. "A Regional Decomposition of US Housing Prices and Volume: Market Dynamics and Economic Diversification Opportunities," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-06, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    25. Lyndsey Rolheiser & Dorinth van Dijk & Alex van de Minne, 2018. "Does Housing Vintage Matter? Exploring the Historic City Center of Amsterdam," DNB Working Papers 617, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; Price discovery; VEC-model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

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