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Efficiency and seasonality in the UK housing market, 1991-2001

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  • Leslie Rosenthal

    () (Keele University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper considers the informational efficiency of the UK owner-occupied housing market over the period 1991-2001. Original small-area, monthly, house price index series are developed from raw housing transactions observations for a number of UK counties and cities. These series are then tested for characteristics indicative of weak market efficiency and seasonality. The major conclusions drawn are that there exists little evidence to support notions of inefficiency in these markets for this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Leslie Rosenthal, 2004. "Efficiency and seasonality in the UK housing market, 1991-2001," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2004/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
  • Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2004/05
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    Cited by:

    1. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 402, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    2. L. Rachel Ngai & Silvana Tenreyro, 2014. "Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 3991-4026, December.
    3. de Wit, Erik R. & Englund, Peter & Francke, Marc K., 2013. "Price and transaction volume in the Dutch housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 220-241.
    4. Hiebert, Paul & Sydow, Matthias, 2011. "What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend–discount model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 88-98.
    5. Holly, Sean & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 2-23, January.
    6. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    7. Erik R. de Wit & Peter Englund & Marc Francke, 2010. "Price and Transaction Volume in the Dutch Housing Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-039/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    8. Ham, Yun-Ju & Maddison, David J. & Elliott, Robert J.R., 2013. "The valuation of landfill disamenities in Birmingham," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 116-129.
    9. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    10. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    11. Rainer Schulz & Martin Wersing, 2015. "Forecasting the oil price using house prices Mechanism and the Business Cycle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2015-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    12. Benoit Faye & Éric Le Fur, 2010. "L'étude du lien entre cycle et saisonnalité sur un marché immobilier résidentiel. Le cas de l'habitat ancien à Bordeaux," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(5), pages 937-965.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Markets; Market efficiency; Seasonality.;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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