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Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market

  • L. Rachel Ngai
  • Silvana Tenreyro

Every year during the second and thirdquarters (the "hot season") housing markets in the UK and the US experience systematic above-trend increases in both prices and transactions. During the fourth and first quarters (the "cold season"), house prices and transactions fall below trend. We propose a search-and-matching framework that sheds new light on the mechanisms governing housing market fluctuations. The model has a "thick-market" effect that can generate substantial differences in the volume of transactions and prices across seasons, with the extent of seasonality in prices depending crucially on the bargaining power of sellers. The model can quantitatively mimic the seasonal fluctuations in transactions and prices observed in the UK and the US.

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File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0922.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0922.

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Date of creation: Apr 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0922
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

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  19. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
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  24. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
  25. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Why Do Countries and Industries with Large Seasonal Cycles Also Have Large Business Cycles?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 621-656.
  26. P. Diamond, 1980. "Mobility Costs, Frictional Unemployment and Efficiency," Working papers 257, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  27. James Albrecht & Axel Anderson & Eric Smith & Susan Vroman, 2007. "Opportunistic Matching In The Housing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-664, 05.
  28. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," Staff Report 422, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  29. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, March.
  30. Leslie Rosenthal, 2006. "Efficiency and Seasonality in the UK Housing Market, 1991-2001," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 289-317, 06.
  31. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
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  33. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December.
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