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Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)

  • Ortalo-Magné, François
  • Rady, Sven

We propose a life-cycle model of the housing market with a property ladder and a credit constraint. We focus on equilibria which replicate the facts that credit constraints delay some households' first home purchase and force other households to buy a home smaller than they would like. The model helps us identify a powerful driver of the housing market: the ability of young households to afford the down payment on a starter home, and in particular their income. The model also highlights a channel whereby changes in income may yield housing price overshooting, with prices of trade-up homes displaying the most volatility, and a positive correlation between housing prices and transactions. This channel relies on the capital gains or losses on starter homes incurred by credit-constrained owners. We provide empirical support for our arguments with evidence from both the U.K. and the U.S.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 494.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:494
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  14. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2001. "Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership: A Comparative Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 2717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  16. Dennis R. Capozza & Charlotte Mack & Patric H. Hendershott & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "The Determinants of House Price Dynamics," ERES eres2002_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
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  18. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1990. "Aging and the Income Value of Housing Wealth," NBER Working Papers 3547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 287-303, December.
  20. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April.
  21. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230.
  22. Andrew Caplin & Sewin Chan & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1997. "Housing Partnerships: A New Approach to a Market at a Crossroads," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032430.
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