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L'étude du lien entre cycle et saisonnalité sur un marché immobilier résidentiel. Le cas de l'habitat ancien à Bordeaux

  • Benoit Faye
  • Éric Le Fur
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    The seasonality of the real-estate market is a recognized phenomenon although little studied, notably in its relation with the real estate cycle. By using a database on the real estate transactions of the City of Bordeaux, we investigate here the links between the movements of the cycle and the modifications of the seasonality of the prices for the whole market and by type of possessions. This descriptive approach allows us to pose the bases of a more relevant modelling of the price series.

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    Article provided by Armand Colin in its journal Revue d’Économie Régionale & Urbaine.

    Volume (Year): décembre (2010)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 937-965

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    Handle: RePEc:cai:rerarc:reru_105_0937
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    1. J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1991. "A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles," Papers 0011, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    2. Karl E. Case, 1991. "The real estate cycle and the economy: consequences of the Massachusetts boom of 1984-87," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 37-46.
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    7. Martin Hoesli & Bernard Thion & Craig Watkins, 1997. "A hedonic investigation of the rental value of apartments in central Bordeaux," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 15-26, January.
    8. Gordon W. Crawford & Michael C. Fratantoni, 2003. "Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime-Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 223-243, 06.
    9. Leslie Rosenthal, 2004. "Efficiency and seasonality in the UK housing market, 1991-2001," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2004/05, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. " Recent Advances in Modelling Seasonality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 299-345, September.
    11. Vincent Renard, 1996. "Quelques caractéristiques des marchés fonciers et immobiliers," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 294(1), pages 89-97.
    12. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
    13. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    14. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
    15. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
    16. Fabrice Barthélémy, 1997. "Tests de racines unitaires multiples et saisonnalité," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 673-683.
    17. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470.
    18. Lecat, R. & Mésonnier, J-S., 2005. "Dynamique des prix des logements : quel rôle des facteurs financiers ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 133, pages 29-47.
    19. Kuo, Chiong-Long, 1996. "Serial Correlation and Seasonality in the Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 139-62, March.
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