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L'hypothèse de bulle immobilière

  • Didier Cornuel
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    [eng] The boom of prices and quantities in the real estate markets followed by their fall in most industrialised countries is often considered as a bubble. This paper shows that there wasn't any bubble, i.e., a purely speculative phenomenon without any real factor at the origin, but a cycle due to a shock. The shock is the drop of interest rates and inflation. This shock leads the landlords to reallocate their assets towards financial invest-ments. The contraction of the rental housing stock is responsible for the growth of rents and priees consequently. Conversely, the buyers of housing for owner-occupancy, who are under a liquidity constraint, mind the nominal amount of annuity compared to their income and have been led to buy. These mechanisms are tested on the Parisian residential real estate market. JEL Codes : E32, G12, R31 [fre] Le secteur immobilier a connu ces dix dernières années un cycle d'une ampleur exceptionnelle. L'ampleur inhabituelle a souvent conduit à le qualifier de bulle. En fait, il ne s'agit pas d'une bulle au sens de la théorie économique, c'est-à-dire d'un phénomène purement spéculatif, mais d'un cycle dû à un choc. Le choc consiste dans la chute des taux d'intérêt et de l'inflation. Ce choc a incité les bailleurs à désinvestir de l'immobilier pour se tourner vers des placements financiers. Ce désinvestissement a entraîné une augmentation des loyers qui explique l'augmentation des prix des biens immobiliers. En revanche, les acquéreurs de biens immobiliers pour occupation personnelle qui sont soumis à une contrainte de liquidité, et sont donc sensibles au montant nominal des annuités comparé à leur revenu, ont été incités à acheter. Ces mécanismes sont vérifiés sur le marché de l'immobilier résidentiel parisien mais peuvent s'appliquer partout où le phénomène s'est manifesté.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 70 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 155-191

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1999_num_70_1_1694
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1999.1694
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