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Hot and cold seasons in the housing market

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  • Ngai, L. Rachel
  • Tenreyro, Silvana

Abstract

Every year housing markets in the United Kingdom and the United States experience systematic above-trend increases in prices and transactions during the spring and summer ("hot season") and below-trend falls during the autumn and winter ("cold season"). House price seasonality poses a challenge to existing housing models. We propose a search-and-matching model with thick-market effects. In thick markets, the quality of matches increases, rising buyers' willingness to pay and sellers' desire to transact. A small, deterministic driver of seasonality can be amplified and revealed as deterministic seasonality in transactions and prices, quantitatively mimicking seasonal fluctuations in UK and US markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngai, L. Rachel & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2014. "Hot and cold seasons in the housing market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:63659
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63659/
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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