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Housing over time and over the life cycle: a structural estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Wenli

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Liu, Haiyong

    (East Carolina University)

  • Yang, Fang

    (Louisiana State University)

  • Yao, Rui

    (Baruch College)

Abstract

Supersedes Working Paper 09-7. We estimate a structural model of optimal life-cycle housing and nonhousing consumption in the presence of labor income and house price uncertainties. The model postulates constant elasticity of substitution between housing service and nonhousing consumption and explicitly incorporates a housing adjustment cost. Our estimation fits the cross-sectional and time-series household wealth and housing profies from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1984 to 2005) reasonably well and suggests an intratemporal elasticity of substitution between housing and nonhousing consumption of 0.487. The low elasticity estimate is largely driven by moments conditional on state house prices and moments in the latter half of the sample period and is robust to different assumptions of housing adjustment cost. We then conduct policy analyses in which we let house price and income take values as those observed between 2006 and 2011. We show that the responses depend importantly on the housing adjustment cost and the elasticity of sub-stitution between housing and nonhousing consumption. In particular, compared with the benchmark, the impact of the shocks on homeownership rates is reduced, but the impact on nonhousing consumption is magnified when the house selling cost is sizable or when housing service and nonhousing consumption are highly substitutable.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Wenli & Liu, Haiyong & Yang, Fang & Yao, Rui, 2015. "Housing over time and over the life cycle: a structural estimation," Working Papers 15-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:15-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Hatchondo, Juan & Martinez, Leonardo & Sánchez, Juan M., 2015. "Mortgage defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 173-190.
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2011. "Mortgage defaults," Working Paper 11-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
      • Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Juan M. Sanchez, 2012. "Mortgage Defaults," IMF Working Papers 12/26, International Monetary Fund.
      • Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo & Sánchez, Juan M., 2011. "Mortgage defaults," Working Papers 2011-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 31 Jul 2015.
      • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Juan M. Sanchez, 2015. "Mortgage Defaults," Caepr Working Papers 2015-011 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    2. Hedlund, Aaron, 2016. "Illiquidity and its discontents: Trading delays and foreclosures in the housing market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-13.
    3. repec:red:issued:15-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Aaron Hedlund, 2014. "The Cyclical Dynamics of Illiquid Housing, Debt, and Foreclosures," Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    5. Hernan Winkler, 2011. "The Effect of Homeownership on Geographic Mobility and Labor Market Outcomes," 2011 Meeting Papers 196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Steven Laufer, 2018. "Equity Extraction and Mortgage Default," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 1-33, April.
    7. Aaron Hedlund, 2018. "Down Payments and the Homeownership Dream: Not Such a Barrier After All?," Working Papers 1806, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    8. Djajić, Slobodan & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2015. "Overshooting the Savings Target: Temporary Migration, Investment in Housing and Development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 110-121.
    9. Määttänen, Niku & Terviö, Marko, 2014. "Income distribution and housing prices: An assignment model approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 381-410.
    10. Hryshko, Dmytro & José Luengo-Prado, María & Sørensen, Bent E., 2010. "House prices and risk sharing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 975-987, November.
    11. Song, In Ho, 2010. "House Prices and Consumption," MPRA Paper 27481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rappaport, Jordan, 2014. "A quantitative system of monocentric metros," Research Working Paper RWP 14-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 01 May 2014.
    13. Khorunzhina, Natalia, 2018. "Intratemporal Substitution between Housing and Nondurable Consumption: Evidence from Reinvestment in Housing Stock," MPRA Paper 88667, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2018. "Macroeconomic Implications of Modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a Heterogeneous-Agent Framework," MPRA Paper 87240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Rappaport, Jordan, 2014. "Monocentric city redux," Research Working Paper RWP 14-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    16. Aaron Hedlund, 2018. "Credit Constraints, House Prices, and the Impact of Life Cycle Dynamics," Working Papers 1807, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    17. Leo Kaas & Georgi Kocharkov & Edgar Preugschat & Nawid Siassi, 2017. "Low Homeownership in Germany - A Quantitative Exploration," CESifo Working Paper Series 6775, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life cycle; Housing adjustment costs; Intratemporal substitution;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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