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Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK


  • S Holly
  • M Hashem Pesaran
  • T Yamagata


This paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system. We use changes in real house prices within the UK economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use. Adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect. Shocks to a dominant region - London - are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions. They in turn impact on other regions with a delay. We allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region. London in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to New York and other financial centers. It is shown that New York house prices have a direct effect on London house prices. We analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio-temporal impulse responses. These highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time (as with the conventional impulse responses) and over space.

Suggested Citation

  • S Holly & M Hashem Pesaran & T Yamagata, "undated". "Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK," Discussion Papers 09/32, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:09/32

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luisa Corrado & Bernard Fingleton, 2012. "Where Is The Economics In Spatial Econometrics?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 210-239, May.
    2. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    3. Natalia Bailey & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "A Two‐Stage Approach to Spatio‐Temporal Analysis with Strong and Weak Cross‐Sectional Dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 249-280, January.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    5. Norbert Schanne, 2011. "Forecasting Regional Labour Markets with GVAR Models and Indicators (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1044, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Bussiere Matthieu & Chudik Alexander & Mehl Arnaud, 2013. "How have global shocks impacted the real effective exchange rates of individual euro area countries since the euro’s creation?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-48, April.
    7. Yannis PSYCHARIS & Antonis ROVOLIS & Vassilis TSELIOS & Panayotis PANTAZIS, 2014. "Economic Crisis And Regional Development In Greece," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 39, pages 67-85.
    8. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Jensen-Butler, Chris, 2013. "Estimation of the spatial weights matrix under structural constraints," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 617-634.
    10. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2013. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5-6), pages 592-649, August.
    11. Katharina Pijnenburg, 2013. "The Spatial Dimension of US House Price Developments," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1270, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly, 2014. "Asymmetric Price Adjustment, Sticky Costs and Operating Leverage over the Business Cycle," SEEC Discussion Papers 1402, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    13. Robert DEKLE & Eunpyo HONG & Wei XIE, 2016. "The Regional Spillover Effects of the Tohoku Earthquake," Discussion papers 16049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Schanne, Norbert, 2015. "A Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model for regional labour markets and its forecasting performance with leading indicators in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201513, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    15. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2012. "An early warning system to predict the speculative house price bubbles," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item


    House Prices; Cross Sectional Dependence; Spatial Dependence;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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