Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns
It is widely accepted that aggregate housing prices are predictable, but that excess returns to investors are precluded by the transactions costs of buying and selling property. We examine this issue using a unique data set -- all private condominium transactions in Singapore during an eleven-year period. We model directly the price discovery process for individual dwellings. Our empirical results clearly reject a random walk in prices, supporting mean reversion in housing prices and diffusion of innovations over space. We find that, when house prices and aggregate returns are computed from models that erroneously assume a random walk and spatial independence, they are strongly autocorrelated. However, when they are calculated from the appropriate model, predictability in prices and in investment returns is completely absent. We show that this is due to the illiquid nature of housing transactions. We also conduct extensive simulations, over different time horizons and with different investment rules, testing whether better information on housing price dynamics leads to superior investment performance.
|Date of creation:||22 May 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (510) 642-1922
Fax: (510) 642-5018
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/iber_bphup/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martijn Cremers & Jianping Mei, 2004.
"Turning Over Turnover,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm429, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2008.
- Hill, R. Carter & Sirmans, C. F. & Knight, John R., 1999. "A random walk down main street?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 89-103, January.
- Peter ENGLUND & Min HWANG & John M. QUIGLEY, 2000.
"Hedging Housing Risk,"
FAME Research Paper Series
rp26, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2001. "Hedging Housing Risk," SIFR Research Report Series 2, Institute for Financial Research.
- Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt06t5d6v0, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Englund, Peter & Gordon, Tracy M. & Quigley, John M., 1999.
"The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-216, September.
- Quigley, John M., 1999. "The Valuation of Real Capital:A Random Walk down Kungsgatan," ERES eres1999_109, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Sing, Tien Foo, 2001. "Dynamics of the Condominium Market in Singapore," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 4(1), pages 135-158.
- John V. Duca, 2005. "Making sense of elevated housing prices," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1, 7-13.
- Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
- Quigley, John M., 2002. "Transactions Costs and Housing Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt6pz8p6zt, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Hong, Yongmiao, 1996. "Consistent Testing for Serial Correlation of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 837-64, July.
- Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
- Guntermann, Karl L & Norrbin, Stefan C, 1991. "Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 297-313, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:bphupl:qt41k6c76w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.