Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore
There is increasing evidence that aggregate housing price are predictable. Despite this, a random walk in time and independence in space are two maintained hypotheses in the empirical models for housing price measurement used by government agencies and by commercial companies as well. This paper examines the price discovery process in individual dwellings over time and space by relaxing both assumptions, using a unique body of data from the Singapore private condominium market. We develop a model that tests directly the hypotheses that the prices of individual dwellings follow a random walk over time and that the price of an individual dwelling is independent of the price of a neighboring dwelling. The model is general enough to include other widely used models of housing price determination, such as Bailey, Muth, and Nourse (1963), Case and Shiller (1987) and Redfearn and Quigley (2000), as special cases. The empirical results clearly support mean reversion in housing prices and also diffusion of innovations over space. Our estimates of the level of housing prices, derived from a generalized repeat sales model, suggest that serial and spatial correlation matters in the computation of price indices and the estimation of price levels. The finding of mean reversion may suggest that housing prices are forecastable and that excess returns are possible for investors. We use the monthly price series derived from condominium sales to investigate this issue. We compute gross unleveraged real returns monthly. When returns are computed from models which assume a random walk without spatial autocorrelation, we find that they are strongly autocorrelated. When returns are calculated from more general models that permit mean reversion, the estimated autocorrelation in investment returns is reduced. Finally, when they are calculated from models permitting mean reversion and spatial autocorrelation, predictability in aggregate investment returns is completely absent.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||01 Mar 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: F502 Haas, Berkeley CA 94720-1922|
Phone: (510) 642-1922
Fax: (510) 642-5018
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/iber_econ/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dubin, Robin A, 1998. "Predicting House Prices Using Multiple Listings Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 35-59, July.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987.
"Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities,"
New England Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," NBER Working Papers 2393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 851, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Stephen Malpezzi, 1998.
"A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices,"
Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers
98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
- Englund, Peter & Gordon, Tracy M. & Quigley, John M., 1999.
"The Valuation of Real Capital: A Random Walk down Kungsgatan,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-216, September.
- John M. Quigley, 1999. "The Valuation of Real Capital:A Random Walk down Kungsgatan," ERES eres1999_109, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-46, June.
- Dean H. Gatzlaff, 1994. "Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 22(4), pages 553-581.
- Can, Ayse & Megbolugbe, Isaac, 1997. "Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 203-22, Jan.-Marc.
- Basu, Sabyasachi & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1998. "Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, July.
- repec:arz:wpaper:eres1999-109 is not listed on IDEAS
- William N. Goetzmann & Matthew I. Spiegel, 1997.
"A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm64, Yale School of Management.
- Goetzmann, William N & Spiegel, Matthew, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1-2), pages 11-31, Jan.-Marc.
- William N. Goetzmann and Matthew Spiegel., 1995. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-253, University of California at Berkeley.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt7ph788mn. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.