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A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis

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  • Hua Sun

    ()

  • Yong Tu

    ()

  • Shi-Ming Yu

    ()

Abstract

By splitting the spatial effects into building and neighborhood effects, this paper develops a two order spatio-temporal autoregressive model to deal with both the spatio-temporal autocorrelations and the heteroscedasticity problem arising from the nature of multi-unit residential real estate data. The empirical results based on 54,282 condominium transactions in Singapore between 1990 and 1999 show that in the multi-unit residential market, a two order spatio-temporal autoregressive model incorporates more spatial information into the model, thus outperforming the models originally developed in the market for single-family homes. This implies that the specification of a spatio-temporal model should consider the physical market structure as it affects the spatial process. It is found that the Bayesian estimation method can produce more robust coefficients by efficiently detecting and correcting heteroscedasticity, indicating that the Bayesian estimation method is more suitable for estimating a real estate hedonic model than the conventional OLS estimation. It is also found that there is a trade off between the heteroscedastic robustness and the incorporation of spatial information into the model estimation. The model is then used to construct building-specific price indices. The results show that the price indices for different condominiums and the buildings within a condominium do behave differently, especially when compared with the aggregate market indices. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Hua Sun & Yong Tu & Shi-Ming Yu, 2005. "A Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Model for Multi-Unit Residential Market Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 155-187, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:155-187
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-005-1370-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. S. Wong & C. Yiu & K. Chau, 2013. "Trading Volume-Induced Spatial Autocorrelation in Real Estate Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 596-608, May.
    2. Seow Ong & Poh Neo & Yong Tu, 2008. "Foreclosure Sales: The Effects of Price Expectations, Volatility and Equity Losses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 265-287, April.
    3. Thanos, Sotirios & Dubé, Jean & Legros, Diègo, 2016. "Putting time into space: the temporal coherence of spatial applications in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-88.
    4. Gelfand, Alan E. & Banerjee, Sudipto & Sirmans, C.F. & Tu, Yong & Eng Ong, Seow, 2007. "Multilevel modeling using spatial processes: Application to the Singapore housing market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3567-3579, April.
    5. Hua Sun & Seow Ong, 2014. "Bidding Heterogeneity, Signaling Effect and its Implications on House Seller’s Pricing Strategy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 568-597, November.
    6. Jean Dubé & Diègo Legros, 2013. "Dealing with spatial data pooled over time in statistical models," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
    8. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2012. "Private residential price indices in Singapore: A matching approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 485-494.
    9. Tiziana Caliman & Enrico di Bella, 2011. "Spatial Autoregressive Models for House Price Dynamics in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1837-1855.
    10. Bartz, Kevin & Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola, 2012. "The role of borders, languages, and currencies as obstacles to labor market integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1148-1163.
    11. Julia Freybote & Hua Sun & Xi Yang, 2015. "The Impact of LEED Neighborhood Certification on Condo Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(3), pages 586-608, September.

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