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A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability

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  • William N. Goetzmann

    () (Yale University, School of Management)

  • Matthew I. Spiegel

    () (School of Management)

Abstract

This paper provides a method for estimating housing indicesat the local level. It develops a "distance-weightedrepeat-sale" procedure to exploit the factor structure ofthe error-covariance matrix in the repeat-sales model. Adistance function defined in characteristic andgeographical space provides weights for the generalizedleast-squares model, and allows the use all of the repeated-sales in a metropolitan area to measure returns for thespecific neighborhood of interest. We use distance-weightedrepeat-sales to estimate return indices for all zip codes inthe San Francisco Bay area over the period 1980 through1994. When distance is defined in terms of socio-economiccharacteristics, we find that median household income is thesalient variable explaining covariance of neighborhoodhousing returns. Racial composition and educationalattainment, while significant, are much less influential.Zip-code level indices often deviate dramatically from thecity-wide index, depending upon income levels. This hasimplications for investors and lenders. Our resultsindicate that rates of return may vary considerably within ametropolitan area. Thus, simply using broad metropolitanarea indices as a proxy for capital appreciation within aspecific neighborhood may not be justified.

Suggested Citation

  • William N. Goetzmann & Matthew I. Spiegel, 1997. "A Spatial Model of Housing Returns and Neighborhood Substitutability," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm64, Yale School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Murphy, Kevin J., 1985. "Corporate performance and managerial remuneration : An empirical analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-3), pages 11-42, April.
    2. Goetzmann, William Nelson, 1993. "The Single Family Home in the Investment Portfolio," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 201-222, May.
    3. Arthur B. Kennickell & Janice Shack-Marquez, 1992. "Changes in family finances from 1983 to 1989: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jan, pages 1-18.
    4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
    6. Barton A. Smith & William P. Tesarek, 1991. "House Prices and Regional Real Estate Cycles: Market Adjustments in Houston," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 396-416.
    7. John R. Knight & C. F. Sirmans & Geoffrey K. Turnbull, 1998. "List Price Information in Residential Appraisal and Underwriting," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 59-76.
    8. Jensen, Michael C & Murphy, Kevin J, 1990. "Performance Pay and Top-Management Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 225-264, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:regeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:108-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Daniel P. McMillen, 2002. "The center restored: Chicago's residential price gradient reemerges," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-11.
    3. Song Shi & Martin Young & Bob Hargreaves, 2010. "House Price-Volume Dynamics: Evidence from 12 Cities in New Zealand," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 32(1), pages 75-100.
    4. Cannaday, Roger E. & Munneke, Henry J. & Yang, Tyler T., 2005. "A multivariate repeat-sales model for estimating house price indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 320-342, March.
    5. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Price Discovery in Time and Space: The Course of Condominium Prices in Singapore," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt260185hr, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Lin, Emily Y., 2001. "Information, Neighborhood Characteristics, and Home Mortgage Lending," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 337-355, March.
    7. William Goetzmann & Matthew Spiegel, 2000. "The Policy Implications of Portfolio Choice in Underserved Mortgage Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm161, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
    8. Leon Stirk-Wang & Paul Thorsnes, 2017. "Geographic variation in intra-city house price appreciation over the boom-bust cycle: evidence from Auckland, NZ," Working Papers 1714, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2017.
    9. S. Wong & C. Yiu & K. Chau, 2013. "Trading Volume-Induced Spatial Autocorrelation in Real Estate Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 596-608, May.
    10. Liang Peng, 2012. "Repeat Sales Regression on Heterogeneous Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 804-827, October.
    11. Hany Guirguis & Christos Giannikos & Randy Anderson, 2004. "The US Housing Market: Asset Pricing Forecasts Using Time Varying Coefficients," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 33-53, October.
    12. James Hansen, 2006. "Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-sales Measures," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Eichholtz, Piet & Straetmans, Stefan & Theebe, Marcel, 2012. "The Amsterdam rent index: The housing market and the economy, 1550–1850," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 269-282.
    14. Susin, Scott, 1999. "Rent Vouchers and the Price of Low-Income Housing," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt67d5x29s, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    15. Goodman, Allen C. & Thibodeau, Thomas G., 2003. "Housing market segmentation and hedonic prediction accuracy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 181-201, September.
    16. repec:asg:wpaper:1044 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:3:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602567 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Susin, Scott, 2002. "Rent vouchers and the price of low-income housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 109-152, January.
    19. McMillen, Daniel P., 2003. "The return of centralization to Chicago: using repeat sales to identify changes in house price distance gradients," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 287-304, May.
    20. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:167-185 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General

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