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A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations

Author

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  • Andrew Coleman

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

  • Grant Scobie

    (NZ Treasury)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model that captures the essential features of the supply and demand for housing, and which is used to evaluate the impact of a range of policy interventions. The model incorporates functions describing the demand to rent or purchase housing, a function describing the supply of rental housing, and a function describing the supply of new houses. The model is used to explore the effects on prices, quantities, and owner occupancy (homeownership) rates of policies that change the stock of housing, that alter the taxes and subsidies facing landlords and homeowners, that alter the cost of new housing, and that alter real interest rates. The results suggest that despite the widespread attention owner occupancy rates have attracted, they are not a particularly helpful guide to the state of the housing market. Typically they are quite insensitive to policy interventions, a result that follows from the integrated view of both the rental and ownership market, adopted in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Coleman & Grant Scobie, 2009. "A Simple Model of Housing Rental and Ownership with Policy Simulations," Motu Working Papers 09_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:09_08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2004. "What's the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets," Motu Working Papers 04_08, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2010. "Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt41k6c76w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    3. Donald R. Haurin & Patric H. Hendershott & Susan M. Wachter, 1996. "Borrowing Constraints and the Tenure Choice of Young Households," NBER Working Papers 5630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2010. "Housing Price Dynamics in Time and Space: Predictability, Liquidity and Investor Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 3-23, July.
    5. Andrew Coleman & John Landon-Lane, 2007. "Housing Markets and Migration in New Zealand, 1962-2006," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Arbitrage in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 13704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1986. "Household formation, housing prices, and public policy impacts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 145-164, July.
    8. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Christophe André, 2006. "Has the Rise in Debt Made Households More Vulnerable?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 535, OECD Publishing.
    9. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2006. "Housing Supply and Price Adjustment," Motu Working Papers 06_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    10. Gavin A. Wood & Peter A. Kemp, 2003. "The Taxation of Australian Landlords: Would the British Tax Treatment of Rental Investments Increase Tax Burdens if Introduced in Australia?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(4), pages 747-765, April.
    11. Mark van Zijll de Jong & Grant M. Scobie, 2006. "Housing: An Analysis of Ownership and Investment Based on the Household Savings Survey," Treasury Working Paper Series 06/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Peter Abelson & Roselyn Joyeux, 2007. "Price And Efficiency Effects Of Taxes And Subsidies For Australian Housing," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 147-169, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland, 2013. "Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock," Motu Working Papers 13_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Andrew Coleman, 2017. "Housing, the 'Great Income Tax Experiment' and the intergenerational consequences of the lease," Motu Working Papers 17_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Andrew Coleman, 2010. "The long-term effects of capital gains taxes in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 159-177.
    4. Michael Berlemann & Julia Freese, 2013. "Monetary policy and real estate prices: a disaggregated analysis for Switzerland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 469-490, December.
    5. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland & Andrew Coleman & James Kerr & Alex Collier, 2013. "A New Zealand Regional Housing Model," Motu Working Papers 13_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Coffey, Cathal & Hogan, Paul J. & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2022. "Rental inflation and stabilisation policies: international evidence and the Irish experience," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS136, July.
    7. Andrew Coleman, 2017. "Housing, the ‘Great Income Tax Experiment’, and the intergenerational consequences of the lease," Working Papers 1709, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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