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Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Arthur Grimes

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research and the University of Auckland)

  • Sean Hyland

    () (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

We analyse the multiple channels of influence that GFC-induced credit restrictions had on New Zealand’s subnational housing markets. Our model isolates dynamics caused by impacts on the supply and the demand sides of the market. These dynamics are compared to those caused by a migration shock, a more common form of housing shock in New Zealand. We focus on the impacts on two outcome variables: house prices and housing supply; both shocks cause substantial cyclical adjustments in each variable. Similar cyclical dynamics could complicate the conduct of macro-prudential policies which are designed to affect bank credit allocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland, 2013. "Housing Market Dynamics and the GFC: The Complex Dynamics of a Credit Shock," Working Papers 13_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:13_12
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    File URL: http://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/13_12.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arthur Grimes & Yun Liang, 2007. "Spatial Determinants of Land Prices in Auckland:Does the Metropolitan Urban Limit Have an Effect?," Working Papers 07_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October.
    3. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    4. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    5. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    7. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2007. "House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects," Working Papers 07_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    8. Iris Claus & Arthur Grimes, 2003. "Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2010. "Housing Supply, Land Costs and Price Adjustment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 325-353.
    10. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    11. Arthur Grimes & Sean Hyland & Andrew Coleman & James Kerr & Alex Collier, 2013. "A New Zealand Regional Housing Model," Working Papers 13_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy; What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 11/238, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Oded Palmon & Baron A. Smith, 1998. "New Evidence on Property Tax Capitalization," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1099-1128, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; housing supply; credit restrictions; GFC; migration;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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