IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/2004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

“Hot Property in New Zealand: Empirical Evidence of Housing Bubbles in the Metropolitan Centres”

Author

Abstract

Using recently developed statistical methods for testing and dating exhuberant behavior in asset prices we document evidence of episodic bubbles in the New Zealand property market over the past two decades. The results show clear evidence of a broad-based New Zealand housing bubble that began in 2003 and collapsed over mid 2007 to early 2008 with the onset of the worldwide recession and the financial crisis. New methods of analyzing market contagion are also developed and are used to examine spillovers from the Auckland property market to the other metropolitan centres. Evidence from the latest data reveals that the greater Auckland metropolitan area is currently experiencing a new property bubble that began in 2013. But there is no evidence yet of any contagion effect of this bubble on the other centres, in contrast to the earlier bubble over 2003-2008 for which there is evidence of transmission of the housing bubble from Auckland to the other centres. One of our primary conclusions is that the expensive nature of New Zealand real estate relative to potential earnings in rents is partly due to the sustained market exuberance that produced the broad based bubble in house prices during the last decade and that has continued through the most recent bubble experienced in the Auckland region since 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2015. "“Hot Property in New Zealand: Empirical Evidence of Housing Bubbles in the Metropolitan Centres”," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2004, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Carver & Arthur Grimes, 2016. "Income or Consumption: Which Better Predicts Subjective Wellbeing?," Working Papers 16_12, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    2. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebastian Sanin-Restrepo, 2017. "The Maple Bubble: A History of Migration among Canadian Provinces," Borradores de Economia 992, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Anna Bykhovskaya & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2017. "Point Optimal Testing with Roots That Are Functionally Local to Unity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 3007, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. repec:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:152-171 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Funke, Michael & Kirkby, Robert & Mihaylovski, Petar, 2018. "House prices and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 152-171.
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:92:y:2016:i:299:p:590-605 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2017. "Bubble Contagion: Evidence from Japan's Asset Price Bubble of the 1980-90s," Working Papers in Economics 17/20, University of Waikato.
    9. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:276-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2016. "Are there Bubbles in Exchange Rates? Some New Evidence from G10 and Emerging Markets Countries," Working Papers in Economics 16/05, University of Waikato.
    11. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    12. Philip Inyeob Ji & Glenn Otto, 2015. "Explosive Behaviour in Australian Housing Markets: Rational Bubbles or Not?," Discussion Papers 2015-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:419-442 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2016. "Bubbles in US Regional House Prices: Evidence from House Price/Income Ratios at the State Level," Working Papers in Economics 16/06, University of Waikato.
    15. repec:eee:ecmode:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:101-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubble; Exuberance; Collapse; Contagion; Dating methods; House prices; Property market; Sup test;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Regan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.