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U.S. Metropolitan House Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Oikarinen

    (University of Turku)

  • Steven C. Bourassa

    (Florida Atlantic University)

  • Martin Hoesli

    (University of Geneva, Swiss Finance Institute, and University of Aberdeen)

  • Janne Engblom

    (University of Turku)

Abstract

Using data for 70 U.S. metropolitan areas, this study explores spatial heterogeneity in house price dynamics. We use recent advances in panel econometrics that allow for spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary but cointegrated data. We test for spatial differences and analyze the relationship between the price elasticity of housing supply and the income elasticity of prices, as well as bubble size and duration. The long-term elasticity of house prices with respect to aggregate personal income averages 0.81, but varies considerably across metropolitan areas. The long-term income elasticity generally is greater in the more supply-inelastic metropolitan areas, and we show that bubble size and duration are inversely related to supply elasticity. Also short-term momentum and reversion dynamics show substantial spatial heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Oikarinen & Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Janne Engblom, 2017. "U.S. Metropolitan House Price Dynamics," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-72, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1772
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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