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Search, Liquidity and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction

Listed author(s):
  • Allen Head

    ()

    (Queen`s University)

  • Huw Lloyd-Ellis

    ()

    (Queen`s University)

  • Hongfei Sun

    ()

    (Queen`s University)

We characterize the dynamics of relative house prices, housing sales, construction rates and population growth in response to city-specific income shocks for 106 US cities. We then develop a dynamic search model of the housing market in which construction, the entry of buyers, house prices and sales are endogenously determined in equilibrium. Our theory generates dynamics that are qualitatively consistent with our empirical observations and a version of the economy calibrated to match long-run features of the housing market in U.S. cities offers a substantial quantitative improvement over similar models with no search. In particular, variation in the time it takes to sell a house (i.e. the house's liquidity) induces house values and transaction prices to exhibit momentum, or serially correlated growth.

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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/working_papers/papers/qed_wp_1276.pdf
File Function: First version 2012
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Paper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1276.

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Length: 70 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1276
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Web page: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/
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  1. Antonio M. Merlo & François Ortalo-Magné, 2002. "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence from England," CESifo Working Paper Series 778, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  3. John Krainer, 2008. "Falling house prices and rising time on the market," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar21.
  4. Moen, E.R., 1995. "Competitive Search Equilibrium," Memorandum 37/1995, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. James W. Albrecht & Pieter A. Gautier & Susan B. Vroman, 2001. "Matching with Multiple Applications," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-080/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
  7. Davis, Morris A. & Palumbo, Michael G., 2008. "The price of residential land in large US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 352-384, January.
  8. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Youngman Chun Fai Leong & Ida Yin Sze Chan, 2002. "TOM: Why Isn’t Price Enough?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 5(1), pages 91-115.
  9. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
  10. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
  11. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2012. "Housing Liquidity, Mobility, and the Labour Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1559-1589.
  13. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," Staff Report 422, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  14. Jerez, Belén & Díaz, Antonia, 2010. "House prices, sales, and time on the market : a search-theoretic framework," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1033, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  15. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  16. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2006. "Construction Costs And The Supply Of Housing Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 661-680.
  17. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
  18. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 1999. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 99-16, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  19. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2008. "Trading Frictions and House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 14605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  21. Gerdie Everaert, 2013. "Orthogonal to backward mean transformation for dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 179-221, 06.
  22. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2006. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," NBER Working Papers 12538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Michael Binder & Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2000. "Estimation and Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions with Unit Roots And Cointegration," CESifo Working Paper Series 374, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Maurice J.G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2009. "The Weak Instrument Problem of the System GMM Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-086/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  25. James Albrecht & Axel Anderson & Eric Smith & Susan Vroman, 2007. "Opportunistic Matching In The Housing Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-664, 05.
  26. Morris A. Davis & Francois Ortalo-Magne, 2011. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 248-261, April.
  27. Stephen Malpezzi, 1998. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 98-11, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  28. Arthur J. Hosios, 1990. "On The Efficiency of Matching and Related Models of Search and Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 279-298.
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