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Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation

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  • Jason Allen
  • Robert Amano
  • David P. Byrne
  • Allan W. Gregory

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. We examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1985 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables. The results suggest that city house prices are only weakly correlated in the long run and that there is a disconnect between house prices and interest rates. City-specific variables such as union wage levels and the issuance of building permits tend to be positively related to existing city house prices. Surprisingly, there is mixed evidence with respect to standard measures of economic activity such as per capita GDP and interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:3:p:1132-1149
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01541.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2016. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction: Corrigendum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1214-1219, April.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 953-987, June.
    4. David Albouy & Alex Chernoff & Chandler Lutz & Casey Warman, 2019. "Local Labor Markets in Canada and the United States," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S2), pages 533-594.
    5. Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "Latin America: Vulnerabilities Under Construction?," IMF Working Papers 2012/193, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    7. Tse, Chin-Bun & Rodgers, Timothy & Niklewski, Jacek, 2014. "The 2007 financial crisis and the UK residential housing market: Did the relationship between interest rates and house prices change?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 518-530.
    8. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    9. Islam, Shahidul, 2007. "Neighbourhood Characteristics and Adjacent Ravines on House Prices," Annual Meeting, 2007, July 29-August 1, Portland, Oregon 10250, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. Andrés Alegría & Rodrigo Alfaro & Felipe Córdova, 2017. "The Impact of Warnings Published in a Financial Stability Report on the Loan to Value Ratio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 798, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Luca Casolaro & Cristina Fabrizi, 2018. "House prices in local markets in Italy: dynamics, levels and the role of urban agglomerations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Kartashova, Katya & Tomlin, Ben, 2017. "House prices, consumption and the role of non-Mortgage debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 121-134.
    13. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/163, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Ting Zhang & Dan Gerlowski & Deborah Ford, 2014. "Housing price variability: national and local impacts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3494-3502, October.
    16. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2009. "Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/235, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Julien Reynaud, 2015. "Gauging Housing Supply in Canada: A Stock Approach," IMF Working Papers 2015/128, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Eric Smith & Zoe Xie & Lei Fang, 2022. "The Short and the Long of It: Stock-Flow Matching in the US Housing Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10035, CESifo.
    19. Yuan Zhang & Yiguo Sun & Thanasis Stengos, 2019. "Spatial Dependence in the Residential Canadian Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 223-263, February.
    20. Allen Head & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Hongfei Sun, 2014. "Search, Liquidity, and the Dynamics of House Prices and Construction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1172-1210, April.
    21. Jason Allen & Darcey McVanel, 2009. "Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market," Staff Working Papers 09-13, Bank of Canada.
    22. Alegría, Andrés & Alfaro, Rodrigo & Córdova, Felipe, 2021. "The effect of warnings published in a financial stability report on loan-to-value ratios," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    23. Marsha J. Courchane & Cynthia Holmes, 2014. "Bubble, Bubble ¡V Is there House Price Trouble -- in Canada?," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(1), pages 109-135.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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