IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/reesec/v32y2004i1p1-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis R. Capozza
  • Patric H. Hendershott
  • Charlotte Mack

Abstract

This research analyzes the dynamic properties of the difference equation that arises when markets exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. We identify the correlation and reversion parameters for which prices will overshoot equilibrium ("cycles") and/or diverge permanently from equilibrium. We then estimate the serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a large panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979 to 1995 conditional on a set of economic variables that proxy for information costs, supply costs and expectations. Serial correlation is higher in metro areas with higher real incomes, population growth and real construction costs. Mean reversion is greater in large metro areas and faster growing cities with lower construction costs. The average fitted values for mean reversion and serial correlation lie in the convergent oscillatory region, but specific observations fall in both the damped and oscillatory regions and in both the convergent and divergent regions. Thus, the dynamic properties of housing markets are specific to the given time and location being considered. Copyright 2004 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:1:p:1-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00082.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 209-224.
    3. Dennis R. Capozza & Dick Kazarian & Thomas A. Thomson, 1997. "Mortgage Default in Local Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, pages 631-655.
    4. John M. Clapp & Walter Dolde & Dogan Tirtiroglu, 1995. "Imperfect Information and Investor Inferences From Housing Price Dynamics," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, pages 239-269.
    5. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau, 1990. "The Relationship between Median and Constant Quality House Prices: Implications for Setting FHA Loan Limits," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, pages 323-334.
    6. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-1292, December.
    7. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    9. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Land use regulation and new construction," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
    10. Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997. "Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
    11. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, pages 498-514.
    12. Rose, Louis A., 1989. "Urban land supply: Natural and contrived restrictions," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 325-345, May.
    13. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    14. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November.
    15. Quan, Daniel C & Quigley, John M, 1991. "Price Formation and the Appraisal Function in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 127-146, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:1:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/areueea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.