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The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz Kilian
  • Xiaoqing Zhou

Abstract

Shocks to the demand for housing that originate in one region may seem important only for that regional housing market. We provide evidence that such shocks can also affect housing markets in other regions. Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. We document that, at the national level, real oil price shocks account for 11% of the variability in real house price growth over time. At the regional level, we find that unexpected increases in the real price of oil raise real house prices not only in oil-producing regions, but also in other regions. We develop a theoretical model of the propagation of real oil price shocks across regions that helps understand this finding. The model differentiates between oil-producing and non-oil-producing regions and incorporates multiple sectors, trade between provinces, government redistribution, and consumer spending on fuel. We empirically confirm the model prediction that oil price shocks are transmitted to housing markets in nonoil-producing regions by the government redistribution of oil revenue and by increased interprovincial trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada," CESifo Working Paper Series 7005, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7005
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7005.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timothy Fitzgerald & Randal R Rucker, 2016. "US private oil and natural gas royalties: estimates and policy relevance," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 40(1), pages 3-25, March.
    2. Neil Bhutta, 2015. "The Ins and Outs of Mortgage Debt : An Update," FEDS Notes 2015-12-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
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    7. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "How do Housing Returns in Emerging Countries Respond to Oil Shocks? A MIDAS Touch," Working Papers 201946, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:89-99 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house price; regional heterogeneity; oil price; redistribution; resource boom; Canada;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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