IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/renvpo/v10y2016i2p185-205..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz Kilian

Abstract

This article examines how the shale oil revolution has shaped the evolution of U.S. crude oil and gasoline prices. It puts the increased production of shale oil into historical perspective, highlights uncertainties about future shale oil production, and cautions against the view that the United States will become the next Saudi Arabia. It then reviews how the ban on U.S. crude oil exports, capacity constraints in refining and transporting crude oil, and the regional fragmentation of the global market for crude oil after 2010 have affected U.S. oil and gasoline prices. In particular, the article discusses the reasons for the persistent wedge between U.S. and global crude oil prices in recent years, explains why domestic oil trading at a discount has not lowered U.S. gasoline prices, and discusses the role of shale oil in causing the 2014 oil price decline. Finally, the article explores the implications of the shale oil revolution for the U.S. economy and explains why increased shale oil production is unlikely to create a boom in oil-intensive U.S. manufacturing industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:renvpo:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:185-205.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/reep/rew001
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Hackett & Leigh Noda & Susan W. Grissom & Michal C. Moore & Jennifer Winter, 2013. "Pacific Basin Heavy Oil Refining Capacity," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 6(8), February.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    3. Severin Borenstein and Ryan Kellogg, 2014. "The Incidence of an Oil Glut: Who Benefits from Cheap Crude Oil in the Midwest?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    4. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    5. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    6. Alquist, Ron & Guénette, Justin-Damien, 2014. "A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 49-57.
    7. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    8. Belu Mănescu, Cristiana & Nuño, Galo, 2015. "Quantitative effects of the shale oil revolution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 855-866.
    9. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2014. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," NBER Working Papers 20508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    11. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
    12. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/237, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 11876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. John Coglianese & Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian & James H. Stock, 2017. "Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Jaimes, Richard & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2020. "Resource-richness and economic growth in contemporary U.S," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    7. Martin Geiger & Jochen Güntner, 2019. "How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy?," Economics working papers 2019-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    8. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Smith, James L. & Lee, Thomas K., 2017. "The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-135.
    10. Thomas Walther & Lanouar Charfeddine & Tony Klein, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," Working Papers on Finance 1816, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    11. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    12. Khalil, Makram, 2022. "Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    13. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    14. Shaun McRae, 2017. "Crude Oil Price Differentials and Pipeline Infrastructure," NBER Working Papers 24170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Huang, Dayong & Li, Jay Y. & Wu, Kai, 2021. "The effect of oil supply shocks on industry returns," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    16. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    17. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Natoli, Filippo & Veronese, Giovanni & Zeni, Federica, 2018. "Futures risk premia in the era of shale oil," MPRA Paper 89097, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.
    19. Jacks, David S. & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "What drives commodity price booms and busts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Lips, Johannes, 2018. "Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181504, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:renvpo:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:185-205.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aereeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.