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The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves

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  • Smith, James L.
  • Lee, Thomas K.

Abstract

We formulate a model of shale oil development that identifies how much of the U.S. resource base is likely to be economically viable at various price levels, and what share of potential drilling sites are likely to be exploited. The analysis is driven by the lognormal variability in productivity of individual wells. We find the volume of reserves to be highly inelastic with respect to price. The number of viable drilling sites is less inelastic, which may explain why reserve additions and production fell much less than drilling activity during the recent industry slump.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, James L. & Lee, Thomas K., 2017. "The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:121-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.06.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas R. Covert & Ryan Kellogg, 2017. "Environmental Consequences of Hydrocarbon Infrastructure Policy," NBER Working Papers 23855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chen, Yan, 2021. "Evaluating the influence of energy prices on tight oil supply with implications on the impacts of COVID-19," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Li, Zhao-Chen, 2021. "Forecasting the stock returns of Chinese oil companies: Can investor attention help?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 531-555.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2021. "The asymmetric relationship of oil prices and production on drilling rig trajectory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Bai, Yang & Dahl, Carol, 2018. "Evaluating the management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during oil disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 25-38.
    6. Kleinberg, R.L. & Paltsev, S. & Ebinger, C.K.E. & Hobbs, D.A. & Boersma, T., 2018. "Tight oil market dynamics: Benchmarks, breakeven points, and inelasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 70-83.
    7. Smith, James L., 2018. "Estimating the future supply of shale oil: A Bakken case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 395-403.
    8. Ikonnikova, Svetlana A. & del Carpio Neyra, Victor & Berdysheva, Sofia, 2022. "Investment choices and production dynamics: The role of price expectations, financial deficit, and production constraints," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shale oil; Price elasticity; Drilling productivity; Lognormal distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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