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The Relationship Between Oil Price and Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Gerhard Toews
  • Alexander Naumov

Abstract

We propose a simple structural model of the upstream sector in the oil and gas industry to study the determinants of costs with a focus on its relationship with the price of oil.We use the real oil price, data on global drilling activity and costs of drilling to estimate a three-dimensional VAR model. We use short run restrictions to decompose the variation in the data into three structural shocks. We estimate the dynamic effects of these shocks on drilling activity, costs of drilling and the real price of oil. Our main results are that (i)a 1% increase (decrease) in the oil price increases (decreases) global drilling activity by 1% and costs of drilling by 0.5% with a lag of a year; and (ii) shocks to drilling activity and costs of drilling do not affect the price of oil permanently.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Toews & Alexander Naumov, 2015. "The Relationship Between Oil Price and Costs in the Oil and Gas Industry," OxCarre Working Papers 152, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:152
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    File URL: https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/OxCarre/ResearchPapers/OxCarreRP2015152.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Kellogg, 2011. "Learning by Drilling: Interfirm Learning and Relationship Persistence in the Texas Oilpatch," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1961-2004.
    2. Adelman, M A, 1990. "Mineral Depletion, with Special Reference to Petroleum," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-10, February.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    5. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & Stephen W. Salant, 2018. "Hotelling under Pressure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 984-1026.
    6. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard, 2020. "Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan," GLO Discussion Paper Series 469, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Smith, James L. & Lee, Thomas K., 2017. "The price elasticity of U.S. shale oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 121-135.
    3. Nicoleta Iliescu, 2018. "Long-run co-movements between oil prices and rig count in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1171-1179.
    4. Ansari, Dawud, 2017. "OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 166-178.
    5. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    6. Alberto Behar & Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1623, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "The relationship between oil prices and rig counts: The importance of lags," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 213-226.
    8. Ansari, Dawud, 2017. "OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 166-178.
    9. Alberto Behar & Robert A Ritz, 2016. "An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash," IMF Working Papers 16/131, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Resources; Dutch Disease; Immigration; Mitigation Effect;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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