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OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Behar

    (Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund)

  • Robert A. Ritz

    (Energy Policy Research Group University of Cambridge)

Abstract

In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers, notably US shale oil, out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a “regime switch” by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Behar & Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Working Papers EPRG 1612, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1612
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Moreno Alonso & Antonio Mu oz San Roque, 2021. "Oil Costs and Prices: An Empirical Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 546-554.
    2. Khan, Muhammad Imran & Yasmeen, Tabassam & Shakoor, Abdul & Khan, Niaz Bahadur & Muhammad, Riaz, 2017. "2014 oil plunge: Causes and impacts on renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 609-622.
    3. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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