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Global oil risks in the early 21st century

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  • Fantazzini, Dean
  • Hook, Mikael
  • Angelantoni, André

Abstract

The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.

Suggested Citation

  • Fantazzini, Dean & Hook, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," MPRA Paper 33825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33825
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    5. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. "World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
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    7. Ringsmuth, Andrew K. & Landsberg, Michael J. & Hankamer, Ben, 2016. "Can photosynthesis enable a global transition from fossil fuels to solar fuels, to mitigate climate change and fuel-supply limitations?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 134-163.
    8. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    9. Lutz, Christian & Lehr, Ulrike & Wiebe, Kirsten S., 2012. "Economic effects of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 829-834.
    10. Lycheva, Maria & Mironenkov, Alexey & Kurbatskii, Alexey & Fantazzini, Dean, 2022. "Forecasting oil prices with penalized regressions, variance risk premia and Google data," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 28-49.
    11. Misbah Saboohi, 2020. "Exploring the Compensation Plans Under International Laws from Offshore Oil Facilities and Relationship between Oil Production, Trade and Carbon Emission: An Evidence from Global Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 265-273.
    12. Höök, Mikael & Fantazzini, Dean & Angelantoni, André & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy," MPRA Paper 46957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Walan, Petter & Davidsson, Simon & Johansson, Sheshti & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-187.
    14. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    15. Donohue, Ian & Coscieme, Luca & Gellner, Gabriel & Yang, Qiang & Jackson, Andrew L. & Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & McCann, Kevin S., 2023. "Accelerated economic recovery in countries powered by renewables," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Dean Fantazzini & Mario Maggi, 2014. "Proposed Coal Power Plants and Coal-To-Liquids Plants: Which Ones Survive and Why?," DEM Working Papers Series 082, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Peak oil; Economic risks; Energy transition risks; Government risks; Business risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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