IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert

  • Reynolds, Douglas B.
  • Baek, Jungho

Much economic literature analyzes the Hotelling principal. Little economic literature analyzes the Hubbert curve although much controversy surrounds it. This difference in emphasis by economists needs to be reconsidered critically, and towards that end, we attempt to look at both concepts simultaneously. We test whether a simple Hubbert curve model is a significant determinant of world oil price changes and whether one of the main determinants of the Hotelling principle—the discount rate—also affects world oil prices. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach is used to examine the effects of a Hubbert index variable and a Hotelling discount rate variable on the world wide price of oil. Results show the discount rate, the most important Hotelling variable, has little effect on oil prices, but that the Hubbert curve model does show a large effect on oil prices. Oil is a non-renewable natural resource par excellence, yet the results suggest that the Hotelling principle is not an important determinant for oil prices, yet the Hubbert curve and the theory surrounding the Hubbert curve is an important determinant of oil prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311001010
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 162-170

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:162-170
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Russell S. Uhler, 1976. "Costs and Supply in Petroleum Exploration: The Case of Alberta," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 72-90, February.
  2. G. C. Watkins, 1992. "The Hotelling Principle: Autobahn or Cul de Sac?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
  3. Cleveland, Cutler J., 1991. "Physical and economic aspects of resource quality : The cost of oil supply in the lower 48 United States, 1936-1988," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 163-188, June.
  4. Norgaard, Richard B., 1990. "Economic indicators of resource scarcity: A critical essay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-25, July.
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 1988. "An Econometric Analysis of Exploration and Extraction of Oil in the U.K. Continental Shelf," UCLA Economics Working Papers 471, UCLA Department of Economics.
  6. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Causes and consequences of the oil shock of 2007–08," CQER Working Paper 2009-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "Entropy and diminishing elasticity of substitution," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-58, March.
  8. Pesaran, M.H. & Samiei, H., 1993. "Forecasting Ultimate Resource Recovery," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9320, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Livernois, John R & Uhler, Russell S, 1987. "Extraction Costs and the Economics of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 195-203, February.
  12. Swierzbinski, Joseph E. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1989. "Information and exhaustible resources: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 193-208, May.
  13. Peterson, Frederick M., 1978. "A model of mining and exploring for exhaustible resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 236-251, September.
  14. Charness, Gary B & Jackson, Matthew O., 2007. "The Role of Responsibility in Strategic Risk-Taking," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2mk4p42w, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  15. Loderer, Claudio, 1985. " A Test of the OPEC Cartel Hypothesis: 1974-1983," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 991-1006, July.
  16. James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 51-82.
  17. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
  18. Solow, Robert M, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 1-14, May.
  19. Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
  20. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  21. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
  22. Cutter J. Cleveland & Robert K. Kaufmann, 1991. "Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery and Its Rate of Production: Incorporating Economic Forces into the Models of M. King Hubbert," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-46.
  23. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2007. "Institutions and the supply of oil: A case study of Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 939-949, February.
  24. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  25. Stephen P. Holland, 2008. "Modeling Peak Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 61-80.
  26. Robert K. Kaufmann & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2001. "Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-49.
  27. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
  28. James L. Smith, 2005. "Petroleum Prospect Valuation: The Option to Drill Again," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 53-68.
  29. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
  30. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  31. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
  32. Richard L. Gordon, 2009. "Hicks, Hayek, Hotelling, Hubbert, and Hysteria or Energy, Exhaustion, Environmentalism, and Etatism in the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-16.
  33. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
  34. Douglas B. Reynolds & Marek Kolodziej, 2009. "North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 269-306, May.
  35. Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
  36. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-61, October.
  37. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-25, December.
  38. Lasserre, Pierre, 1984. "Reserve and land prices with exploration under uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 191-201, September.
  39. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Chang, Sheldon, 1982. "Optimal pricing, use, and exploration of uncertain natural resource stocks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-10, March.
  40. Watkins, G.C., 2006. "Oil scarcity: What have the past three decades revealed?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 508-514, March.
  41. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Shiers, Laura D., 2008. "Alternatives to conventional crude oil: When, how quickly, and market driven?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 405-411, October.
  42. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
  43. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
  44. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:1:p:162-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.