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Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach

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  • Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F.
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira

Abstract

This study evaluates scenarios for the oil production in Peru applying a Hubbert model. Two scenarios for the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) were proposed: the first, in which low investments in E&P and social and environmental barriers undermine the development of oil resources beyond the limits characterized as 2P; the second, more optimistic, in which current exploratory and production areas in Amazonia and low-explored Offshore-Shelf basins are developed, thus, increasing EUR to 3P reserves plus contingent resources. Findings show that oil production in Peru has not followed a Single-Hubbert pattern, except for the area with more drilling activity and the highest accumulated production in the Northwest coast. Actually, institutional and regulation changes and less-attractive periods for operators due to poor results in oil discoveries explain why a multi-Hubbert approach better depicted the oil production in Peru. Peru has the potential to achieve a second peak of 274kbpd of crude oil, overcoming the peak of 195kbpd, reached in 1982. However, most of the remaining production would be located in Amazonia, where social and environmental issues pose critical challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:140-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.028
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