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Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve

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  • Gallagher, Brian

Abstract

A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an "idealized" Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2Â Mb/d (30.4Â Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Gallagher, Brian, 2011. "Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 790-802, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:2:p:790-802
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    2. Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
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    1. repec:eee:energy:v:130:y:2017:i:c:p:448-460 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    3. repec:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1858-:d:118630 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    5. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1003-:d:101115 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yeeles, Adam & Akporiaye, Alero, 2016. "Risk and resilience in the Nigerian oil sector: The economic effects of pipeline sabotage and theft," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 187-196.
    7. van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 530-536.
    8. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.

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