Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve
A logistic function is used to characterize peak and ultimate production of global crude oil and petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Annual oil production data were incrementally summed to construct a logistic curve in its initial phase. Using a curve-fitting approach, a population-growth logistic function was applied to complete the cumulative production curve. The simulated curve was then deconstructed into a set of annual oil production data producing an "idealized" Hubbert curve. An idealized Hubbert curve (IHC) is defined as having properties of production data resulting from a constant growth-rate under fixed resource limits. An IHC represents a potential production curve constructed from cumulative production data and provides a new perspective for estimating peak production periods and remaining resources. The IHC model data show that idealized peak oil production occurred in 2009 at 83.2Â Mb/d (30.4Â Gb/y). IHC simulations of truncated historical oil production data produced similar results and indicate that this methodology can be useful as a prediction tool.
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- Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
- Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
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