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European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis

  • Patrick Criqui

    ()

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

  • Silvana Mima

    ()

    (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)

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    In this research, we provide an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European energy sector, through a model based analysis of scenarios produced with the POLES model. The scenarios describe the consequences of different degrees of GHG emission constraint, at world level, but also for a case where Europe adopts an ambitious climate policy, while the rest of the world sticks to much more modest abatement policies. The analysis shows that under such stringent climate policies, Europe may benefit of a significant double dividend, first in its capacity to develop a new cleaner and climate-friendlier energy model, and second in a lower vulnerability to potential price or supply shocks on the international energy markets.

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    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/66/10/43/PDF/CR-EDDEN-1_PC-SM_2011.pdf
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    Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00661043.

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    Date of creation: Feb 2012
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    Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2012, 41, 1, 827-842
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00661043
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00661043
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    1. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    2. de Almeida, Pedro & Silva, Pedro D., 2009. "The peak of oil production--Timings and market recognition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1267-1276, April.
    3. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    4. Matutinovic, Igor, 2009. "Oil and the political economy of energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4251-4258, November.
    5. Zecca, Antonio & Chiari, Luca, 2010. "Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-3, January.
    6. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
    7. Zhao, Lin & Feng, Lianyong & Hall, Charles A.S., 2009. "Is peakoilism coming?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2136-2138, June.
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