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Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

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  • Mohr, S.H.
  • Evans, G.M.

Abstract

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32Â Gb/y (49-88Â Mb/d) in 2076-2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:265-276
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
    2. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana, 2012. "European climate—energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 827-842.
    2. Wang, Ke & Feng, Lianyong & Wang, Jianliang & Xiong, Yi & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "An oil production forecast for China considering economic limits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 586-596.
    3. Wang, Jianliang & Mohr, Steve & Feng, Lianyong & Liu, Huihui & Tverberg, Gail E., 2016. "Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 389-401.
    4. Goldemberg, José & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucchesi, Rodrigo, 2014. "Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-70.
    5. Ward, James D. & Mohr, Steve H. & Myers, Baden R. & Nel, Willem P., 2012. "High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 598-604.
    6. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    7. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    8. Liam Wagner & Ian Ross & John Foster & Ben Hankamer, 2013. "Tracking global fuel supply, CO2 emissions and sustainable development," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 7-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Wagner, Liam & Ross, Ian & Foster, John & Hankamer, Ben, 2016. "Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development," MPRA Paper 69941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2013. "Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 27-40.
    11. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    12. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    13. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.
    14. Ochieng, E.G. & Melaine, Y. & Potts, S.J. & Zuofa, T. & Egbu, C.O. & Price, A.D.F. & Ruan, X., 2014. "Future for offshore wind energy in the United Kingdom: The way forward," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 655-666.

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    Keywords

    Unconventional oil Modeling Supply;

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