IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i5p1825-1833.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil

Author

Listed:
  • de Castro, Carlos
  • Miguel, Luis Javier
  • Mediavilla, Margarita

Abstract

In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality. This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the World. Two models with different ways to treat the contribution of non conventional oil have been developed and tested: a base model (business as usual), which extrapolates the last two decades' growth of this type of oil into the future, and a model that explores how much non conventional oil would be needed in order to avoid a peak and decrease in the global non renewable fuel production. The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production over at least the next two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1825-1833
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00057-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2008. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3063-3076, November.
    2. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    3. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2005. "A theory of economic growth with material/energy resources and dematerialization: Interaction of three growth mechanisms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 96-118, October.
    4. Feng, Lianyong & Li, Junchen & Pang, Xiongqi, 2008. "China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4149-4153, November.
    5. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    6. Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
    7. Ockwell, David G., 2008. "Energy and economic growth: Grounding our understanding in physical reality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4600-4604, December.
    8. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
    9. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
    10. Sterman, John & Richardson, George P. & Davidsen, Pål I., 1987. "Modeling the estimation of petroleum resources in the United States," Working papers 1900-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1206-1223, November.
    12. Barrett, Mark & Lowe, Robert & Oreszczyn, Tadj & Steadman, Philip, 2008. "How to support growth with less energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4592-4599, December.
    13. Tao, Zaipu & Li, Mingyu, 2007. "System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2281-2286, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brecha, Robert J., 2012. "Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 586-597.
    2. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    3. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    4. Liu, Zhen & Tang, Yuk Ming & Chau, Ka Yin & Chien, Fengsheng & Iqbal, Wasim & Sadiq, Muhammad, 2021. "Incorporating strategic petroleum reserve and welfare losses: A way forward for the policy development of crude oil resources in South Asia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. "World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
    6. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Martina, Esteban & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos, 2012. "Cyclical behavior of crude oil markets and economic recessions in the period 1986–2010," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 47-58.
    7. Movilla, Santiago & Miguel, Luis J. & Blázquez, L. Felipe, 2013. "A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 142-154.
    8. Ranko Gantner & Mirjana Baban & Hrvoje Glavas & Milan Ivanovic & Pit Schlechter & Luka Sumanovac & Domagoj Zimmer, 2014. "Indices Of Sustainability Of Horse Traction In Agriculture," Economy of eastern Croatia yesterday, today, tommorow, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 3, pages 616-626.
    9. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    10. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    11. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
    12. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    13. García-Olivares, Antonio & Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim, 2015. "Energy and mineral peaks, and a future steady state economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 587-598.
    14. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana, 2012. "European climate—energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 827-842.
    15. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
    16. Sena, Marcelo Fonseca Monteiro de & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli & Szklo, Alexandre, 2013. "Will Venezuelan extra-heavy oil be a significant source of petroleum in the next decades?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 51-59.
    17. Salvador Pueyo, 2014. "Ecological Econophysics for Degrowth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-53, May.
    18. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    19. Manfroni, Michele & Bukkens, Sandra G.F. & Giampietro, Mario, 2022. "Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    20. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    21. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "On the Relationship between Disaggregated Energy Production and GDP in Italy," Energy & Environment, , vol. 23(8), pages 1191-1207, December.
    2. Anupam Das & Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman, 2012. "Panel Cointegration and Pooled Mean Group Estimations of Energy-Output Dynamics in South Asia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(5), pages 277-286.
    3. Dergiades, Theologos & Martinopoulos, Georgios & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2013. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Parametric and non-parametric causality testing for the case of Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 686-697.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    5. Ozturk, Ilhan & Aslan, Alper & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2010. "Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4422-4428, August.
    6. Narayan, Seema, 2016. "Predictability within the energy consumption–economic growth nexus: Some evidence from income and regional groups," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 515-521.
    7. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    8. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," MPRA Paper 28494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nguyen-Van, Phu, 2010. "Energy consumption and income: A semiparametric panel data analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 557-563, May.
    10. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    11. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    12. Saida Zaidi & Samia Gmiden & Kais Saidi, 2018. "How energy consumption affects economic development in select African countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 501-513, January.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    14. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    15. Halkos, George E. & Tzeremes, Nickolaos G., 2011. "Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1354-1362, May.
    16. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Steve, Mohr & Tang, Xu & Gail, Tverberg E. & Mikael, Höök, 2015. "China's unconventional oil: A review of its resources and outlook for long-term production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 31-42.
    17. Predrag Petrović, 2023. "Economic sustainability of energy conservation policy: improved panel data evidence," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1473-1491, February.
    18. Dariusz Krawczyk & Viktoriya Martynets & Yuliia Opanasiuk & Ihor Rekunenko, 2023. "Socio-Economic Development of European Countries in Times of Crisis: Ups and Downs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Sheilla Nyasha & Yvonne Gwenhure & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Ethiopia: A dynamic causal linkage," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(8), pages 1393-1412, December.
    20. Dagher, Leila & Yacoubian, Talar, 2012. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 795-801.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1825-1833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.