The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil
In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality. This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the World. Two models with different ways to treat the contribution of non conventional oil have been developed and tested: a base model (business as usual), which extrapolates the last two decades' growth of this type of oil into the future, and a model that explores how much non conventional oil would be needed in order to avoid a peak and decrease in the global non renewable fuel production. The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production over at least the next two decades.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
- Sterman, John & Richardson, George P. & Davidsen, Pål I., 1987. "Modeling the estimation of petroleum resources in the United States," Working papers 1900-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Energy consumption and GDP revisited: A panel analysis of developed and developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1206-1223, November.
- Chiou-Wei, Song Zan & Chen, Ching-Fu & Zhu, Zhen, 2008. "Economic growth and energy consumption revisited -- Evidence from linear and nonlinear Granger causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3063-3076, November.
- Barrett, Mark & Lowe, Robert & Oreszczyn, Tadj & Steadman, Philip, 2008. "How to support growth with less energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4592-4599, December.
- Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
- Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2005. "A theory of economic growth with material/energy resources and dematerialization: Interaction of three growth mechanisms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 96-118, October.
- Feng, Lianyong & Li, Junchen & Pang, Xiongqi, 2008. "China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4149-4153, November.
- Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
- Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
- Ockwell, David G., 2008. "Energy and economic growth: Grounding our understanding in physical reality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4600-4604, December.
- Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
- Tao, Zaipu & Li, Mingyu, 2007. "System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2281-2286, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:5:p:1825-1833. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.