IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v54y2013icp155-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects

Author

Listed:
  • Logar, Ivana
  • van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.

Abstract

This article examines the potential effects of peak oil on Spanish tourism and indirectly on the rest of the economy. We construct several scenarios of price increases in oil, related fossil fuels and their inflationary effects. These scenarios provide the context for an input–output (I/O) analysis which uses I/O tables extended with Tourism Satellite Accounts. The analysis comprises three steps: (1) applying an I/O price model to estimate the price change of tourism services in Spain due to an increase in the prices of oil and other fossil fuels; (2) assessing the effects of price changes on demand for tourism services; and (3) estimating the impacts of demand change on the country's economy using an I/O demand model. The results show that a decreased demand for tourism services results in the greatest fall in outputs in the tourism-related shares of air, water, land and railway transport sectors. These are followed by tourism agencies' activities, non-market recreational, cultural and sporting activities, restaurants, and hotels. Depending on the oil price scenario adopted, GDP (Gross domestic product) decreases between −0.08% and −0.38% and the number of jobs lost through direct and indirect effects varies between approximately 20,000 and 100,000.

Suggested Citation

  • Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:54:y:2013:i:c:p:155-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.072
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213001084
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.072?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin B. Schmidt, 2000. "The Dynamic Behavior of Wages and Prices: Cointegration Tests within a Large Macroeconomic System," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 67(1), pages 123-138, July.
    2. Maria De Mello & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 2002. "A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 509-521.
    3. Philip Du Caju & Erwan Gautier & Daphne Momferatu & Melanie Ward-Warmedinger, 2009. "Institutional Features of Wage Bargaining in 23 European Countries, the US and Japan," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 12(2), pages 57-108, Winter.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    5. LeBlanc, Michael & Chinn, Menzie David, 2004. "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4wt4m7hg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. Barth, James R & Bennett, James T, 1975. "Cost-push versus Demand-pull Inflation: Some Empirical Evidence: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 391-397, August.
    7. Fernando Martins & M. Druant, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-23.
    9. Hallock, John L. & Tharakan, Pradeep J. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Jefferson, Michael & Wu, Wei, 2004. "Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1673-1696.
    10. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
    11. Larry Dwyer & Peter Forsyth (ed.), 2006. "International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2827.
    12. Berument, Hakan & Taşçı, Hakan, 2002. "Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 568-580.
    13. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    14. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Rutledge, Emilie, 2007. "Oil and gas markets in the UK: Evidence from a cointegrating approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 329-347, March.
    15. de Castro, Carlos & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2009. "The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1825-1833, May.
    16. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    17. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    18. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    19. Schiff, Aaron & Becken, Susanne, 2011. "Demand elasticity estimates for New Zealand tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-575.
    20. Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly & Xiaming Liu, 2000. "An empirical study of outbound tourism demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-624.
    21. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
    22. Tverberg, Gail E., 2012. "Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 27-34.
    23. Bentley, R. W., 2002. "Global oil & gas depletion: an overview," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 189-205, February.
    24. Kausik Chaudhuri, 2001. "Long-run prices of primary commodities and oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 531-538.
    25. Teresa Garin-Munoz & Teodosio Perez Amaral, 2000. "An econometric model for international tourism flows to Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(8), pages 525-529.
    26. Álvarez, Luis J. & Hurtado, Samuel & Sánchez, Isabel & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "The impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 422-431.
    27. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    28. Andrew J. Cassey & David W. Holland & Abdul Razack, 2011. "Comparing the Economic Impact of an Export Shock in Two Modeling Frameworks," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 623-638.
    29. Bardi, Ugo, 2009. "Peak oil: The four stages of a new idea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 323-326.
    30. Pascal Jacquinot & Mika Kuismanen & Ricardo Mestre & Martin Spitzer, 2009. "An Assessment of the Inflationary Impact of Oil Shocks in the Euro Area," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 49-84.
    31. McGlade, C.E., 2012. "A review of the uncertainties in estimates of global oil resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 262-270.
    32. Leder, Frederic & Shapiro, Judith N., 2008. "This time it's different: An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2840-2842, August.
    33. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    34. Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.
    35. Kerschner, Christian & Hubacek, Klaus, 2009. "Assessing the suitability of input–output analysis for enhancing our understanding of potential economic effects of Peak Oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 284-290.
    36. Richard Heinberg & David Fridley, 2010. "The end of cheap coal," Nature, Nature, vol. 468(7322), pages 367-369, November.
    37. Soderbergh, Bengt & Robelius, Fredrik & Aleklett, Kjell, 2007. "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1931-1947, March.
    38. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    39. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    40. Mehra, Yash P, 1991. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: An Empirical Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 931-937, September.
    41. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
    42. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2006. "Testing for Market Integration: Crude Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 55-72.
    43. Rutger Hoekstra, 2005. "Economic Growth, Material Flows and the Environment," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3700.
    44. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    45. Gupta, Eshita, 2008. "Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1195-1211, March.
    46. Mine K. Vücel & Shengyi Guo, 1994. "Fuel Taxes And Cointegration Of Energy Prices," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(3), pages 33-41, July.
    47. Becken, Susanne & Lennox, James, 2012. "Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-142.
    48. Llop, Maria & Pié, Laia, 2008. "Input-output analysis of alternative policies implemented on the energy activities: An application for Catalonia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1642-1648, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    2. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    3. Cortés-Borda, D. & Guillén-Gosálbez, G. & Jiménez, L., 2015. "Assessment of nuclear energy embodied in international trade following a world multi-regional input–output approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 91-101.
    4. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    5. Soares, N. & Martins, A.G. & Carvalho, A.L. & Caldeira, C. & Du, C. & Castanheira, É. & Rodrigues, E. & Oliveira, G. & Pereira, G.I. & Bastos, J. & Ferreira, J.P. & Ribeiro, L.A. & Figueiredo, N.C. & , 2018. "The challenging paradigm of interrelated energy systems towards a more sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 171-193.
    6. Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de & Antunes, Carlos Henggeler & Freire, Fausto & Henriques, Carla Oliveira, 2015. "A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 769-785.
    7. Kuo-Tsang Huang & Jen Chun Wang, 2015. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Tourism-Based Leisure Farms in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    9. Carmen Ramos Carvajal & Ana Salomé García-Muñiz & Blanca Moreno Cuartas, 2019. "Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Integrating Distributed Energy Resources in Electricity Markets through Input-Output Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Pedro Pintassilgo & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego & Elisabeth Valle, 2016. "The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 685-698, August.
    11. Duarte, Rosa & Langarita, Raquel & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio, 2017. "The electricity industry in Spain: A structural analysis using a disaggregated input-output model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2640-2651.
    12. Siamand Hesami & Bezhan Rustamov & Husam Rjoub & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations for Tourism Receipts: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2017. "Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    2. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    3. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    4. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    5. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Cornel Oros & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2017. "Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(15), pages 1527-1542, March.
    6. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kim, Won Joong, 2023. "How macroeconomic factors drive the linkages between inflation and oil markets in global economies? A multiscale analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 212-232.
    8. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    9. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    10. Wicker, Pamela & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 41-48.
    11. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    12. Becken, Susanne & Lennox, James, 2012. "Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-142.
    13. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    14. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    15. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    16. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    17. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Al-Emadi, Ahmed Abdulsalam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "Importance of oil shocks and the GCC macroeconomy: A structural VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 166-179.
    18. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    19. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    20. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:54:y:2013:i:c:p:155-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.