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The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects

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  • Logar, Ivana
  • van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M.

Abstract

This article examines the potential effects of peak oil on Spanish tourism and indirectly on the rest of the economy. We construct several scenarios of price increases in oil, related fossil fuels and their inflationary effects. These scenarios provide the context for an input–output (I/O) analysis which uses I/O tables extended with Tourism Satellite Accounts. The analysis comprises three steps: (1) applying an I/O price model to estimate the price change of tourism services in Spain due to an increase in the prices of oil and other fossil fuels; (2) assessing the effects of price changes on demand for tourism services; and (3) estimating the impacts of demand change on the country's economy using an I/O demand model. The results show that a decreased demand for tourism services results in the greatest fall in outputs in the tourism-related shares of air, water, land and railway transport sectors. These are followed by tourism agencies' activities, non-market recreational, cultural and sporting activities, restaurants, and hotels. Depending on the oil price scenario adopted, GDP (Gross domestic product) decreases between −0.08% and −0.38% and the number of jobs lost through direct and indirect effects varies between approximately 20,000 and 100,000.

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  • Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:54:y:2013:i:c:p:155-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.072
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    3. Cortés-Borda, D. & Guillén-Gosálbez, G. & Jiménez, L., 2015. "Assessment of nuclear energy embodied in international trade following a world multi-regional input–output approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 91-101.
    4. Soares, N. & Martins, A.G. & Carvalho, A.L. & Caldeira, C. & Du, C. & Castanheira, É. & Rodrigues, E. & Oliveira, G. & Pereira, G.I. & Bastos, J. & Ferreira, J.P. & Ribeiro, L.A. & Figueiredo, N.C. & , 2018. "The challenging paradigm of interrelated energy systems towards a more sustainable future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 171-193.
    5. Carvalho, Ariovaldo Lopes de & Antunes, Carlos Henggeler & Freire, Fausto & Henriques, Carla Oliveira, 2015. "A hybrid input–output multi-objective model to assess economic–energy–environment trade-offs in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 769-785.
    6. Kuo-Tsang Huang & Jen Chun Wang, 2015. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Tourism-Based Leisure Farms in Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    8. Pedro Pintassilgo & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego & Elisabeth Valle, 2016. "The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 685-698, August.
    9. Duarte, Rosa & Langarita, Raquel & Sánchez-Chóliz, Julio, 2017. "The electricity industry in Spain: A structural analysis using a disaggregated input-output model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2640-2651.
    10. Siamand Hesami & Bezhan Rustamov & Husam Rjoub & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations for Tourism Receipts: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(17), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Laha, Priyanka & Chakraborty, Basab, 2017. "Energy model – A tool for preventing energy dysfunction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 95-114.

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