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Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario

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  • Friedrichs, Jörg

Abstract

Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.

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  • Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:4562-4569
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    2. John Sherwood & Anthony Ditta & Becky Haney & Loren Haarsma & Michael Carbajales-Dale, 2017. "Resource Criticality in Modern Economies: Agent-Based Model Demonstrates Vulnerabilities from Technological Interdependence," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 1-22, September.
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    6. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
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    10. Samuel Alexander & Brendan Gleeson, 2020. "Suburban Practices of Energy Descent," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(3), pages 907-940, May.
    11. van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 530-536.
    12. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. "World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
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    14. Di Muzio, Tim, 2016. "Energy, Capital as Power and World Order," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 267-287.
    15. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
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