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Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario

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  • Friedrichs, Jörg

Abstract

Peak oil theory predicts that oil production will soon start a terminal decline. Most authors imply that no adequate alternate resource and technology will be available to replace oil as the backbone resource of industrial society. This article uses historical cases from countries that have gone through a similar experience as the best available analytical strategy to understand what will happen if the predictions of peak oil theorists are right. The author is not committed to a particular version of peak oil theory, but deems the issue important enough to explore how various parts of the world should be expected to react. From the historical record he is able to identify predatory militarism, totalitarian retrenchment, and socioeconomic adaptation as three possible trajectories.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:8:p:4562-4569
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    2. repec:spr:bioerq:v:2:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41247-017-0026-z is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Heun, Matthew Kuperus & de Wit, Martin, 2012. "Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 147-158.
    4. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
    5. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    6. Wicker, Pamela & Becken, Susanne, 2013. "Conscientious vs. ambivalent consumers: Do concerns about energy availability and climate change influence consumer behaviour?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 41-48.
    7. Alharbi, Fahhad & Bass, John D. & Salhi, Abdelmajid & Alyamani, Ahmed & Kim, Ho-Cheol & Miller, Robert D., 2011. "Abundant non-toxic materials for thin film solar cells: Alternative to conventional materials," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2753-2758.
    8. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    9. van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Effective climate-energy solutions, escape routes and peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 530-536.
    10. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. " World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
    11. repec:zbw:espost:157988 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    13. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.

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