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Can the South African transport system surmount reduced crude oil availability?


  • Vanderschuren, M.J.W.A
  • Lane, T.E.
  • Wakeford, J.J.


This paper is based on an elaborate research project carried out in 2008. International 'Peak Oil' predictions were translated to the South African context as a basis for the energy analysis. Based on available plans for the implementation of new power plants, and the like, various energy availability scenarios were developed. On the transportation side, the current transport demand (passenger and freight) was combined with fuel efficiency knowledge in the transportation field. Planned or proven international efficiency improvement interventions were assessed regarding their feasibility in the South African context. Furthermore, implementation trajectories up to the year 2030 were developed for all potential efficiency measures. Finally, the energy availability scenarios and feasible energy measure trajectories were combined to provide the client with investment suggestions and other conclusions and recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanderschuren, M.J.W.A & Lane, T.E. & Wakeford, J.J., 2010. "Can the South African transport system surmount reduced crude oil availability?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6092-6100, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:10:p:6092-6100

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michaelis, Laurie, 1997. "Transport sector-strategies markets, technology and innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1163-1171, December.
    2. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    3. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
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