IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v60y2013icp204-214.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jianliang
  • Feng, Lianyong
  • Davidsson, Simon
  • Höök, Mikael

Abstract

China's energy supply is dominated by coal, making projections of future coal production in China important. Recent forecasts suggest that Chinese coal production may reach a peak in 2010–2039 but with widely differing peak production levels. The estimated URR (ultimately recoverable resources) influence these projections significantly, however, widely different URR-values were used due to poor understanding of the various Chinese coal classification schemes. To mitigate these shortcomings, a comprehensive investigation of this system and an analysis of the historical evaluation of resources and reporting issues are performed. A more plausible URR is derived, which indicates that many analysts underestimate volumes available for exploitation. Projections based on the updated URR using a modified curve-fitting model indicate that Chinese coal production could peak as early as 2024 at a maximum annual production of 4.1 Gt. By considering other potential constraints, it can be concluded that peak coal in China appears inevitable and immediate. This event can be expected to have significant impact on the Chinese economy, energy strategies and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reduction strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Chinese coal supply and future production outlooks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 204-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:204-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.07.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213006361
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.07.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    2. Zhou, Yun, 2010. "Why is China going nuclear?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3755-3762, July.
    3. Patzek, Tadeusz W. & Croft, Gregory D., 2010. "A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3109-3122.
    4. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    5. Fan, Ying & Xia, Yan, 2012. "Exploring energy consumption and demand in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 23-30.
    6. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    7. Lin, Bo-qiang & Liu, Jiang-hua, 2010. "Estimating coal production peak and trends of coal imports in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 512-519, January.
    8. Shealy, Malcolm & Dorian, James P., 2010. "Growing Chinese coal use: Dramatic resource and environmental implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2116-2122, May.
    9. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Brandt, Adam & Miller, Richard, 2010. "Global oil depletion: A review of the evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5290-5295, September.
    10. Mou, Dunguo & Li, Zhi, 2012. "A spatial analysis of China's coal flow," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 358-368.
    11. Tao, Zaipu & Li, Mingyu, 2007. "What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies--A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3145-3154, June.
    12. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    13. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "China's natural gas: Resources, production and its impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 690-698.
    14. You, C.F. & Xu, X.C., 2010. "Coal combustion and its pollution control in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4467-4472.
    15. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    16. Sorrell, Steve & Miller, Richard & Bentley, Roger & Speirs, Jamie, 2010. "Oil futures: A comparison of global supply forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4990-5003, September.
    17. Kahrl, Fredrich & Roland-Holst, David, 2009. "Growth and structural change in China's energy economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 894-903.
    18. Minqi Li, 2008. "Peak Energy and the Limits to China’s Economic Growth: Prospect of Energy Supply and Economic Growth from Now to 2050," Working Papers wp189, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    19. Pan, Lingying & Liu, Pei & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng, 2012. "A supply chain based assessment of water issues in the coal industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 93-102.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    2. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    3. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    4. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    5. Xibo Wang & Mingtao Yao & Jiashuo Li & Kexue Zhang & He Zhu & Minsi Zheng, 2017. "China’s Rare Earths Production Forecasting and Sustainable Development Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    7. Zhang, Yujiang & Feng, Guorui & Zhang, Min & Ren, Hongrui & Bai, Jinwen & Guo, Yuxia & Jiang, Haina & Kang, Lixun, 2016. "Residual coal exploitation and its impact on sustainable development of the coal industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 534-541.
    8. Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Simon Snowden & Baosheng Zhang & Mikael Höök, 2015. "Dilemmas for China: Energy, Economy and Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-13, May.
    9. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    10. Glynn, James & Chiodi, Alessandro & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Deane, J.P. & Bazilian, Morgan & Gallachóir, Brian Ó, 2014. "Energy Security Analysis: The case of constrained oil supply for Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 312-325.
    11. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    12. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    13. Wang, Chengjin & Ducruet, César, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 3-16.
    14. Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Capellán, Iñigo & Javier Miguel, Luis & Arto, Iñaki & Frechoso, Fernando, 2013. "The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 297-311.
    15. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    16. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    17. Baskoro, Firly Rachmaditya & Takahashi, Katsuhiko & Morikawa, Katsumi & Nagasawa, Keisuke, 2021. "System dynamics approach in determining coal utilization scenario in Indonesia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Enang, Wisdom & Bannister, Chris, 2017. "Modelling and control of hybrid electric vehicles (A comprehensive review)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1210-1239.
    19. Chengjin Wang & César Ducruet, 2014. "Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics," Post-Print halshs-01069149, HAL.
    20. Shang, Yizi & Hei, Pengfei & Lu, Shibao & Shang, Ling & Li, Xiaofei & Wei, Yongping & Jia, Dongdong & Jiang, Dong & Ye, Yuntao & Gong, Jiaguo & Lei, Xiaohui & Hao, Mengmeng & Qiu, Yaqin & Liu, Jiahong, 2018. "China’s energy-water nexus: Assessing water conservation synergies of the total coal consumption cap strategy until 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 643-660.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:60:y:2013:i:c:p:204-214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.