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Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources

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  • Semenychev, V.K.
  • Kurkin, E.I.
  • Semenychev, E.V.

Abstract

In this study, we review mathematical models of trends in the production of non-renewable resources. We propose new models that allow specifying curve asymmetry and use genetic algorithms as curve-fitting methods. We estimate the quality of fit of our proposed models and use them to predict oil production in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, the EU, the U.S., Norway, Syria, the UK, and some fields in Russia; gas production in the EU, the UK and Italy; shale gas production in the U.S.; coal production in the U.S. and Germany; as well as global gold production. The models fit the data accurately in all these cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:75:y:2014:i:c:p:244-251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.07.063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V. & Danilova, A.A., 2017. "Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 448-460.
    2. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Guixian, 2021. "Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Alexander Malanichev, 2018. "Limits of Technological Efficiency of Shale Oil Production in the USA," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 78-89.
    4. Wang, Qiang & Jiang, Feng, 2019. "Integrating linear and nonlinear forecasting techniques based on grey theory and artificial intelligence to forecast shale gas monthly production in Pennsylvania and Texas of the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 781-803.

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    Keywords

    Oil; Gas; Coal; Gold; Production; Model;
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