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Projections of UK oil and gas supply and demand to 2010

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  • Hammond, G.P.
  • Mackay, R.M.

Abstract

A novel approach to the modelling of the extraction life-cycle of depleting fossil fuel resources has been applied to the case of oil and natural gas production within the UK Continental Shelf. This utilises skewed normal production profiles that yield a better representation than do earlier approaches. Simple methods for extrapolating oil and gas demand in the UK have also been devised. The projected oil and gas balances for the period up to 2010 indicate when oil production will cease to meet indigenous consumption, and the increasing need to import natural gas supplies. These results depend quite heavily on estimates of remaining oil and gas reserves. It will consequently be necessary to revise periodically the present projections as more reliable reserve estimates become available.

Suggested Citation

  • Hammond, G.P. & Mackay, R.M., 1993. "Projections of UK oil and gas supply and demand to 2010," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 93-112.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:44:y:1993:i:2:p:93-112
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    Cited by:

    1. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V. & Danilova, A.A., 2017. "Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 448-460.
    2. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    3. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    5. Semenychev, Valery & Kurkin, Eugene & Semenychev, Eugene & Danilova, Anastasia, 2014. "Oscillatory components in the bell-shaped curves of the product life cycle modeling tool," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 111-123.
    6. Hayat, Aziz & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2010. "The oil stock fluctuations in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-184, January.
    7. Hammond, Geoffrey P., 1996. "Nuclear energy into the twenty-first century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 327-344, August.

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