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Are Shocks to Commodity Prices Persistent?

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  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

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  • Ruipeng Liu

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent or transitory. We use two recently developed unit root tests, namely the Narayan and Popp (NP, 2010) test and the Liu and Narayan (LN, 2010) test that allow for two structural breaks in the data series. Using the NP test, we are able to reject the unit root null for iron ore and tin, while, using the GARCH-based unit root test of LN, we are able to reject the unit root null for five commodity prices; namely, iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin. Our findings, thus, suggest that only shocks to gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, and copper are persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan & Ruipeng Liu, 2010. "Are Shocks to Commodity Prices Persistent?," Economics Series 2010_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2010_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A unit root model for trending time-series energy variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-402.
    2. Mostafa, Mohamed M. & El-Masry, Ahmed A., 2016. "Oil price forecasting using gene expression programming and artificial neural networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Breaks or long range dependence in the energy futures volatility: Out-of-sample forecasting and VaR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 354-374.
    4. Lau, Lin-Sea & Choong, Chee-Keong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2014. "Carbon dioxide emission, institutional quality, and economic growth: Empirical evidence in Malaysia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 276-281.
    5. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:453-483 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2015. "Is gold different for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors? An empirical analysis of the Shanghai Gold Exchange," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-211.
    7. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2014. "Is monthly US natural gas consumption stationary? New evidence from a GARCH unit root test with structural breaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 258-262.
    8. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2016. "Are natural gas spot and futures prices predictable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-186.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    10. Hooi Hooi Lean & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2016. "Conditional convergence in US disaggregated petroleum consumption at the sector level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(32), pages 3049-3061, July.
    11. Afees A. Salisu & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2017. "Are daily agricultural grains prices stationary? New evidence from GARCH-based unit root tests," Working Papers 036, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    12. Chou, Kuo-Wei & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2016. "Oil prices, exchange rate, and the price asymmetry in the Taiwanese retail gasoline market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 733-741.
    13. Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 12-27.
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Adeleke, Adegoke I., 2016. "Further application of Narayan and Liu (2015) unit root model for trending time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 305-314.
    15. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2012. "Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 296-307.
    16. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Unit root properties of natural gas spot and futures prices: The relevance of heteroskedasticity in high frequency data," Monash Economics Working Papers 20-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    17. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Idris Adediran, 2018. "Improving the predictability of commodity prices in US inflation: The role of coffee price," Working Papers 041, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    18. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sam Olofin & Afees A. Salisu, 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks," Working Papers 020, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.

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    Keywords

    Commodity Prices; Unit Root Test; GARCH.;

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