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Trends in world energy prices

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  • Ghoshray, Atanu
  • Johnson, Ben

Abstract

The correct identification of the time series path of non-renewable energy resources has far reaching consequences for economists and policymakers alike. This study builds on the existing literature by employing a data series that includes a sample period of institutional change and recently developed unit root testing procedures. Besides crude oil, natural gas and coal prices are also examined, aiming to further the knowledge of non-renewable energy resource time paths in order to inform future research and update the conclusions of past studies. The unit root tests allow for structural breaks and are based on the procedures developed by Zivot and Andrews (1992), Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) and Lee and Strazicich (2003). Finally, we investigate whether the trend changes signs in the regimes which are bounded by the structural breaks and quantify the prevalence of the trends over the sample period considered. The results show that the trend is not well represented by a single positive or negative trend. The variability of the trend suggests that forecasting energy prices should not typically occur about a single trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:1147-1156
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    1. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    2. García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2013. "Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 363-375.
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    4. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2014. "The Evolving Relationships between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 135-187 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Nusair, Salah A., 2013. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-353.
    6. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, and stock market: A dynamic causality analysis on the European market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 199-202.
    7. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    8. Franco Ruzzenenti, 2015. "Changes in the relationship between the financial and real sector and the present economic financial crisis: study of energy sector and market," Working papers wpaper105, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
    10. George P. Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & George Evangelidis & Panagiotis G. Papaioannou & Dionysios S. Georgiadis, 2015. "Co-Movement Analysis of Italian and Greek Electricity Market Wholesale Prices by Using a Wavelet Approach," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-30, October.
    11. Kumbaroğlu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Evaluation of Economically Optimal Retrofit Investment Options for Energy Savings in Buildings," FCN Working Papers 14/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    12. Catton, Will & Carrington, Gerry & Sun, Zhifa, 2011. "Exergy analysis of an isothermal heat pump dryer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4616-4624.
    13. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Unit root properties of natural gas spot and futures prices: The relevance of heteroskedasticity in high frequency data," Monash Economics Working Papers 20-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2017. "Structural shocks and dynamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 405-422, September.
    15. Sun, Jingwei & Shi, Wendong, 2015. "Breaks, trends, and unit roots in spot prices for crude oil and petroleum products," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 169-177.
    16. repec:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2017:i:3:p:827-838 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yaya, OlaOluwa Simon & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Carcel, Hector, 2015. "Testing fractional persistence and non-linearities in the natural gas market: An application of non-linear deterministic terms based on Chebyshev polynomials in time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 240-245.
    18. Clausen Volker & Wohltmann Hans-Werner, 2013. "Oil Price Dynamics and Monetary Policy in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(2), pages 159-187, April.
    19. Sun, Qi & Xu, Weijun & Xiao, Weilin, 2013. "An empirical estimation for mean-reverting coal prices with long memory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-181.
    20. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2016. "Are natural gas spot and futures prices predictable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-186.

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