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Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?

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  • Carlos Coimbra
  • Paulo Soares Esteves

Abstract

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry‐over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry‐over assumption for short‐term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer‐term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:87-106
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0277-0180.2004.00129.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    3. Lean, Hooi Hooi & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 979-986, September.
    4. Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
    5. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    6. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    7. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    8. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03318785, HAL.
    9. Pagano Patrizio & Pisani Massimiliano, 2009. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-28, June.
    10. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    11. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," CARF F-Series CARF-F-201, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    14. Chin Wen Cheong, 2010. "A Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Energy Spot Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 105-117, January.
    15. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
    16. Salah Abosedra, 2005. "Futures versus univariate forecast of crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(4), pages 231-241, December.
    17. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2020. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," MPRA Paper 100705, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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