Fossil Fuel Prices and the Economic and Budgetary Challenges of a Small Energy-Importing Economy: The Case of Portugal
This paper examines the economic and budgetary impacts of fuel prices using a dynamic general equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy which highlights the mechanisms of endogenous growth and includes a detailed modeling of the public sector. The fuel price scenarios are based on forecasts by the US Department of Energy (DOE-US) and the International Energy Agency (IEA-OECD) and represent a wide range of projections for absolute and relative fossil fuel prices. In terms of the long term economic impact, our results suggest a 1.9 percent drop in GDP in the DOE-US scenario and 1.6 percent in the IEA-OECD scenario. As to the budgetary impact, higher fuel prices lead to lower tax revenues, which, coupled with a reduction in public spending, translate into lower public deficits. Accordingly, increasing fuel prices create an important policy trade off in that they can contribute to reducing the public deficit while hindering economic growth. We find that fairly strong incentives for wind energy can reduce the economic impact of fuel prices by 14.2 percent in the DOE-US price scenario and 18.5 percent reduction in the IEA-OECD price scenario. Finally, our results highlight the importance of public sector spending decisions and the mechanisms of endogenous growth in understanding the impact of fossil fuel prices. Indeed, a scenario of higher fuel prices would, with exogenous public decisions and exogenous economic growth assumptions, result in substantially smaller economic effects and yield adverse budgetary effects.
|Date of creation:||19 Oct 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 8795, Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795|
Phone: (757) 221-4311
Fax: (757) 221-2390
Web page: http://www.wm.edu/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000.
"Oil prices and the terms of trade,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
- David K. Backus & Mario J. Crucini, 1998. "Oil Prices and the Terms of Trade," NBER Working Papers 6697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, 06.
- Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil prices assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," Working Papers w200404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2005. "Economic growth and the environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1219-1271 Elsevier.
- Teresa Sousa, 2011. "International macroeconomic interdependence and imports of oil in a small open economy," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 35-60, April.
- Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2010. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 3-14, September.
- Weiqi Tang & Libo Wu & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Their Short- and Long-Term Effects on the Chinese Economy," Economics Study Area Working Papers 102, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
- Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2009. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," MPRA Paper 14703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Werner Roeger, 2005. "International oil price changes: impact of oil prices on growth and inflation in the EU/OECD," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 15-32, 06.
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 1998. "Growth, Volume 2: Energy, the Environment, and Economic Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 2, number 0262100746, September.
- Wissema, Wiepke & Dellink, Rob, 2007. "AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 671-683, March.
- Wiepke Wissema & Rob Dellink, "undated". "CGE Analysis of the Impact of a Carbon Energy Tax on the Irish Economy," EcoMod2006 272100104, EcoMod.
- Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-29, January.
- Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2006. "Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 610-631, November.
- Koetse, Mark J. & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2008. "Capital-energy substitution and shifts in factor demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2236-2251, September.
- Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2006. "Capital-Energy Substitution and Shifts in Factor Demand: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-061/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Alfredo M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2004. "Strategies for Fiscal Reform in the Context of the EMU: the Case of Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 141-163, 02.
- Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
- Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yücel, Mine K., 2001. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey," Working Papers 0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Environmental Fiscal Reform and Fiscal Consolidation: The Quest for the Third Dividend in Portugal," Working Papers 114, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil Prices and the Economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "Human capital formation and global warming mitigation: evidence from an integrated assessment model," Working Papers 2009_30, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Carlo Carraro & Enrica De Cian & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "Human Capital Formation and Global Warming Mitigation: Evidence from an Integrated Assessment Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2874, CESifo Group Munich.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2010. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 848-856, July.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 316-337, March.
- Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2009. "Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks and their Impact on the Current Account," MPRA Paper 16738, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- João Amador, 2010. "Energy Production and Consumption in Portugal:Stylized Facts," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
- Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, April.
- Bergman, Lars, 2005. "CGE Modeling of Environmental Policy and Resource Management," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1273-1306 Elsevier. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)