On the Long-Term Impact of a Fiscal Devaluation: An Application to the Portuguese Case
We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the likely long-term impact of a fiscal devaluation on the Portuguese economy. In a context of exogenous growth, and imposing an unchanged budget deficit to GDP ratio in the year the policy is enacted, we find that a tax swap worth 1 percent of steady-state GDP raises long-term income by as much as 1 percent, and still contributes towards fiscal consolidation, provided there are no cost of living adjustments. This permanent GDP gain is the result of a shift to a broader tax base, with fewer distortions, that then induces a faster accumulation of private capital. If all beneficiaries of public transfers and all civil servants are fully compensated for the increase in VAT, then a tax swap of the same magnitude raises long-term income by only 0.7 percent, and public indebtedness is not significantly altered. We also find that larger fiscal devaluations yield less-than-proportional GDP gains. The fact that fiscal devaluations are rather disappointing in raising the level of GDP can be traced back to a small net reduction in the overall labor tax wedge. This suggests that policymakers need to look elsewhere in their quest for efficient tax reforms.
|Date of creation:||01 Oct 2014|
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- Pedro G. Rodrigues & Alfredo M. Pereira, 2000. "On The Impact Of A Tax Reform Package In Portugal," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 353, Society for Computational Economics.
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- Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012.
"FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations,"
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- Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Nikolai Stähler & Carlos Thomas, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1110, Banco de Espa�a.
- Alfredo M. Pereira & Pedro G. Rodrigues, 2004. "Strategies for Fiscal Reform in the Context of the EMU: the Case of Portugal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 141-163, 02.
- Lipińska, Anna & von Thadden, Leopold, 2009. "Monetary and fiscal policy aspects of indirect tax changes in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 1097, European Central Bank.
- Francesco Franco, 2011. "Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp556, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
- Alfredo Marvão Pereira & Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Environmental Fiscal Reform and Fiscal Consolidation: The Quest for the Third Dividend in Portugal," Working Papers 114, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
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