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The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy

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  • Schubert, Stefan F.
  • Turnovsky, Stephen J.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of an increase in the price of oil on a small developing economy. We consider the extent to which the impacts of oil price shocks depend upon the economy's internal production structure and its access to the world financial market, and find that the long-run impact depends much more on the former than the latter. Two critical quantities summarizing the long-run effects are (i) the relative share of oil to labor in output and (ii) the elasticity of substitution in production. We supplement the formal analysis with numerical simulations, thereby enabling us to characterize the short-run dynamics. Overall, the simulations can replicate much of the empirical evidence used to characterize the effects of the recent oil price increases on the economy. They also highlight the sensitivity of the effect of the oil price to the elasticity of substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:94:y:2011:i:1:p:18-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Jomar Patricia De Avila Arroyo & Milton Yago & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Junjie Wu, 2014. "Strategic Alliance in Energy Sector & Implications for Economic Growth and Technical Efficiency: The Case of Petrobras and Galp," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 759-771.
    3. Heer, Burkhard & Schubert, Stefan Franz, 2012. "Unemployment and debt dynamics in a highly indebted small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1392-1413.
    4. Stefan Schubert & Stephen Turnovsky, 2011. "The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 365-386, July.
    5. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    6. repec:kap:enreec:v:67:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9984-z is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marc Pourroy & Benjamin Carton & Dramane Coulibaly, 2016. "Food Prices and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 108-140.
    8. Behrouzi, Fatemeh & Nakisa, Mehdi & Maimun, Adi & Ahmed, Yasser M., 2016. "Global renewable energy and its potential in Malaysia: A review of Hydrokinetic turbine technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1270-1281.
    9. Farrukh Suvankulov, 2016. "Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models," Staff Analytical Notes 16-8, Bank of Canada.
    10. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    11. Jammazi, Rania, 2012. "Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 750-777.
    12. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    13. Chong, Heap-Yih & Lam, Wei-Haur, 2013. "Ocean renewable energy in Malaysia: The potential of the Straits of Malacca," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 169-178.
    14. repec:ris:betajl:0010 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:545-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    17. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Pereira, Rui M., 2014. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 248-261.
    18. repec:eee:touman:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:133-142 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:22-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:ora:jrojbe:v:3:y:2018:i:2:p:7-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00768906 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Kizuku Takao, 2014. "Dynamic effects of anticipated and temporary tax changes in a R&D-based growth model," ISER Discussion Paper 0913, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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