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How resilient is the modern economy to energy price shocks?

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  • Karsten Jeske
  • Rajeev Dhawan

Abstract

While many empirical economists claim that energy price shocks drive U.S. business cycles, economists using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models believe that business cycles are caused mainly by productivity shocks. ; The authors reconcile the two views by constructing a DSGE model that incorporates energy use into the production function. Calibrating the model properties to match annual U.S. data from 1970 to 2005, they undertake two different experiments. The first incorporates a negative correlation between energy prices shocks and productivity as observed before 1985, and the second, without this correlation, mimics the current period. ; Their simulation confirms the findings of the econometric literature that energy price shocks reduced real output growth prior to 1985. The model simulation without the correlation explains why in 1986, when energy prices fell, there was no major increase in growth rates and, most important, why there was no recession in 2005, when energy prices rose. ; The authors conclude that the modern economy, represented by the period after 1985, is very resilient to energy price increases. Price controls on energy in the 1970s, the authors argue, may have done more harm than good, and they caution that policies inhibiting the functioning of free markets could again make the economy susceptible to energy price?induced recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2006. "How resilient is the modern economy to energy price shocks?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue q3, pages 21-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedaer:y:2006:i:q3:p:21-32:n:v.91no.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    3. Fakhraddin Maroofi & Parviz Kafchehi, 2012. "The Influence of Oil Prices on an Oil-Importing Developing Economy," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 66-82, October.
    4. Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-29, January.
    5. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68778, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Islamic Republic of Iran; Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 10/76, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Schubert, Stefan F., 2014. "Dynamic Effects Of Oil Price Shocks And Their Impact On The Current Account," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 316-337, March.
    8. Stefan Schubert & Stephen Turnovsky, 2011. "The Impact of Energy Prices on Growth and Welfare in a Developing Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 365-386, July.
    9. repec:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:656-667 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mark C. Snead, 2009. "Are the energy states still energy states?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue qiv, pages 43-68.
    11. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    Keywords

    Econometric models; Business cycles;

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